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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted

NAM still gung ho on driving slp further north than the globals and other models. When the nam is all alone like this it's usually wrong and dials it back at game time. 

 

I'm thinking a 50 mile adjustment south at minimum based upon H5 depiction. Saw the triple point low and jump during that run and was definitely north with central low pressure center. NAM just doing NAM things and it still smokes DC/Baltimore and NW.

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted

eh...The NAM has deform in Scranton..I wouldn't take it too seriously...

 

The NAM gives us 20"+ before 12z and then takes the deformation band to PA and we get the dregs.  I don't believe it either, but it does set up our worst-case scenario.  Euro precip amounts early, NAM deformation location late.  And yet we'd still pull off 15" or so.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

DCZ001-VAZ054-220000-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA
327 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND
AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE MORNING. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID
20S. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 15 TO 20.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

NAM still gung ho on driving slp further north than the globals and other models. When the nam is all alone like this it's usually wrong and dials it back at game time.

I think they compromise. Globals too south and the high res mods are a little overboard. Probably meet in the middle. I will say I posted a comparison of the slp and h5 tracks of this and 1996 (top threat analog) and to a spot off va beach they are the same. Yes from there this slides east vs northeast in 96 abc that's why Boston is probably not in this time but if you look at where heavy snow already was at the point where these two are identical it argues the northern extent should be across central pa to a little north of nyc not southern pa to south of nyc. We will see. None of that changes your results though.
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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

almost 38" verbatim at LNS, too. Highly doubt that.

Feel for people on the northern edge.. although NAM pretty much only model giving great hope to many. Which is of course never the camp you want to be in. Gotta say that the 500mb low in one hour increments thru 36 on SV is pretty sweet either way.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

I'm thinking a 50 mile adjustment south at minimum based upon H5 depiction. Saw the triple point low and jump during that run and was definitely north with central low pressure center. NAM just doing NAM things and it still smokes DC/Baltimore and NW.

 

I can't remember the specific storms but over the years we've seen the nam do this a lot. If it had support somewhere from something it would be more believable as an option. 

 

I'm not the least bit concerned either way. I did like the nam's front end dump. Let's see if the rgem looks similar. 

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

I think the nam looked fine till 36 hours then it went nam. Punched the low north instead of ene. Not shockingly it goes off on a tangent after 36 hours.

The hi res NAM looks nothing like and actually has a pretty reasonable look, much more euro with the deformation zone. It's amounts are probably too high but the placement looks good.  The NAM a run or two during the Feb 5th even where it went north I think when no one else did.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

The hi res NAM looks nothing like and actually has a pretty reasonable look, much more euro with the deformation zone. It's amounts are probably too high but the placement looks good.  The NAM a run or two during the Feb 5th even where it went north I think when no one else did.

 

yes...4k looks reasonable with placement, even though maybe too wet...We can probably wait until 0z to pay attention to the NAM...curious if the GFS will inch west at 18z

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