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Pre-storm Banter Thread


WxUSAF

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Since ORF is left out in the cold on this one, I'm looking for recommendations for the best area to chase/snowcation for the weekend without getting buried alive and be able to drive back with a 4WD vehicle Sunday night. What locations do you guys think might be best?

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The stuff from the end of the storm could definitely be 15:1 since it'd be at the top of your snowpack, but i'd bet on some compaction further down.  Those who clear their boards and measure every six inches would probably report higher totals than those who don't.

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Long timers on here, like myself, are not stressing and hanging on every model run. Like 1993, 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009-10, it's time to let this play out. Favored climo areas are going to get favored, and those that are not will not. A week of solid model runs will not be wrong. Relax and enjoy.... this is the fun part! The hard part is done!

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

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Long timers on here, like myself, are not stressing and hanging on every model run. Like 1993, 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009-10, it's time to let this play out. Favored climo areas are going to get favored, and those that are not will not. A week of solid model runs will not be wrong. Relax and enjoy.... this is the fun part! The hard part is done!

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

 

This. 

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Since ORF is left out in the cold on this one, I'm looking for recommendations for the best area to chase/snowcation for the weekend without getting buried alive and be able to drive back with a 4WD vehicle Sunday night. What locations do you guys think might be best?

Probably somewhere in the Shenadoah Valley up into the WV corner.

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From the LWX discussion

 

SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE

NEAR CLIMO. THERE WILL BE A STRONG CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE WITH

VERTICAL VELOCITY AND THE LAYER OF MAXIMUM DENTRITIC SNOW GROWTH

BUT FORECAST SHOWS A LARGE LAYER OF RIMING UNDERNEATH THAT LAYER.

 

So the riming cuts down on ratios?  Never heard this mentioned an AFD.

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Tony Pann gave an update this afternoon on facebook saying that he thinks this storm doesnt crack top 10 for Baltimore which would be 18". He replied to someone saying the GFS is bonkers because of high qpf but every model pretry much has BWI around 2.0" qpf. I think he has another hunch like when he thought yesterdays 12z Euro would show something drastically different.

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I know we have been pretty focused on where the heaviest banding and accumulations set up amongst other things, but beginning to wonder if the winds is what this storm is really going to be remembered for.  True blizzard conditions here are almost unheard of except for short periods of time.  It's one thing to be in the warm posting jubilation on amwx and another shivering in the cold and dark trapped without power because the Blizzard knocked out our utilities for who knows how long.

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Tony Pann gave an update this afternoon on facebook saying that he thinks this storm doesnt crack top 10 for Baltimore which would be 18". He replied to someone saying the GFS is bonkers because of high qpf but every model pretry much has BWI around 2.0" qpf. I think he has another hunch like when he thought yesterdays 12z Euro would show something drastically different.

I've been pretty disappointed with him this storm. He hasn't had any "hunches" or insight that have actually come true. Usually he's one of the better ones, despite the RPM reliance. 

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I've been pretty disappointed with him this storm. He hasn't had any "hunches" or insight that have actually come true. Usually he's one of the better ones, despite the RPM reliance.

True, I usually like him also. However he seems to always root against big snows happening even though he is a snow lover so he will find ways to justify it. I know people like this.

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From the LWX discussion
 
SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR CLIMO. THERE WILL BE A STRONG CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE WITH
VERTICAL VELOCITY AND THE LAYER OF MAXIMUM DENTRITIC SNOW GROWTH
BUT FORECAST SHOWS A LARGE LAYER OF RIMING UNDERNEATH THAT LAYER.
 
So the riming cuts down on ratios?  Never heard this mentioned an AFD.

 

I would appreciate it if someone would please explain what a strong crosshair signature is. Thanks.

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Look what this "Mikethemanatee" wrote in the obstacles thread.

Those 50 dbz returns in the deep south better go over us and drop 6" per hour rates with thundersnow and hail or else this thing is a bust.

Mods, ban him.

 

I would love to see hail with snow.. CT got it in their clown fish blizzard of 2013 along with unimaginable rates.

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