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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #3 - No Banter

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Ava on air right now with a basic snow map, 1-2 feet for all on the western shore. NOVA under the bullseye with her mentioning 2 feet plus

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From Sterling:

 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
TN VALLEY FRI NIGHT WILL TRAVERSE THE APPALACHIANS SAT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN MID ATLC STATES SAT NIGHT. DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES
EXPECTED OFF OF THE SC COAST FRI EVENING WILL MOVE TO NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS BY 12Z SAT AND SLOWLY OUT TO SEA SAT BASED ON THE 00Z
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. STRONG COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXPECTED
TO POUND THE MID ATLC AND DELMARVA FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH
HEAVY SNOWS...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE 00Z GFS SEEMS
AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
SHOWING A MORE INTENSE LOW THAT MOVES WESTWARD/INLAND AND KEEPS
POUNDING THE LOCAL AREA FOR 12 HRS LONGER THROUGH SUN. THE 00Z
GEFS MEAN AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECWMF HAVE A LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE
BY 12Z SUN. BASED ON ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ONE TO TWO
FEET OF SNOW APPEAR HIGHLY LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF TWO FEET OR MORE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-66.
GIVEN THAT SOME GUIDANCE HOLDS THE PRECIP
UNTIL MIDDAY FRI AND NO OFFICES TO THE SOUTH ARE ISSUING A WATCH
AT THIS TIME
...NO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME BUT WOULD
EXPECT ONE TO BE ISSUED BY MIDDAY TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.

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It's really amazing to see how this system is evolving. Models have been pretty solid and yet still show that they are trying to figure out what will happen.

Miller B changing to Miller A. Has that ever happened?

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PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

409 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

 

VALID 12Z WED JAN 20 2016 - 12Z SAT JAN 23 2016

(snip)

 

 

BY FRI... A FULL FLEDGED MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL SHIFT DOWNSTREAM

WITH THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER CIRCULATIONS TRACKING INTO THE

SOUTHEAST... WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH

MS/AL WILL WEAKEN AND A NEW COASTAL LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE

CAROLINAS COAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES WITH THE GUIDANCE IS TIMING

WITH THE NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND MOISTURE.

THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION... WHILE THE ECMWF IS

THE SLOWEST BUT SHOWING TRENDS OF SPEEDING UP. EITHER WAY FROM FRI

AND BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD THROUGH SAT BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST

WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER... HEAVY POSSIBLY CRIPPLING SNOW ACROSS

THE NRN MID-ATL REGION INCLUDING THE DC/BALT/PHIL METRO AREA AND

POSSIBLY A WIDE RANGING TRANSITION ZONE OVER WRN NC/UPSTATE SC

INTO SERN VA. 

 

MUSHER

 

 

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When did the 6z gfs get snow here on Friday?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

About 4pm.

EMs got to be thinking about early closures Friday if not whole day given potential scale of this thing. People need time to prep. Media are right to pull the trigger on higher forecasts now - folks need to stock up and help elderly prep.. Shops going to be nuts.

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Looks awesome down there. Enjoy!

If it lives up to near potential it will be discussed for generations as the great blizzard of 16.  as you guys up there know its one thing to see 2ft plus on a snow map with 30 mph winds but another to experience it live and in person.  nothing quite like it. 

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At the limit of the usefulness of the ensembles but for what it's worth... The EPS both at the surface and at 500 are very close. I did note that when looking at the means as well as the individual members they suggested a very slight adjustment closer to the coast on the run up from its exit off the OBX/N Carolina coast. Also noted was that the clustering possibly suggested a little more of a delay with the departure of the low OTS.

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It's really amazing to see how this system is evolving. Models have been pretty solid and yet still show that they are trying to figure out what will happen.

Miller B changing to Miller A. Has that ever happened?

"Miller B+"

How does the strength/track of this clipper coming through compare to what has been modeled, and could that thing mess up the storm if it doesn't behave?

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What are we thinking for winds? I know it's nearly impossible to get blizzard conditions in our area according to the textbook definition but can we get close?

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If it lives up to near potential it will be discussed for generations as the great blizzard of 16. as you guys up there know its one thing to see 2ft plus on a snow map with 30 mph winds but another to experience it live and in person. nothing quite like it.

Nothing like it. Hope you guys get nailed. I have hubs down there to worry about so it has my attention. I feel I'm right back in 2010 when I had to forecast down there lol.

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Nothing like it. Hope you guys get nailed. I have hubs down there to worry about so it has my attention. I feel I'm right back in 2010 when I had to forecast down there lol.

Yes i remember vividly you forecasting then. You did a great job Scott. What are your thoughts on this one?.

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Yes i remember vividly you forecasting then. You did a great job Scott. What are your thoughts on this one?.

My gut is DC and points N and W as best. I wouldn't worry about death band placements and all that kind of stuff yet, but that's my feeling right now.

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As mentioned, SREFs, 06z NAM, and 06z GFS all look huge - great consistency.

The 00z GFS Para is out and is very, very similar to the 00z GFS. Looks like DC stays in snow throughout as system slowly moves around the coast. Drops between 3-4 inches of liquid. Big, big run. Nice to see the Para continue to be on board.

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Cobb for Westminter

 

06z NAM: 1/23 02z to 1/23 18z 1.85 qpf, all snow, with more to fall after this

 

06z GFS: 1/23 00z to 1/24 15z 2.58 qpf, all snow

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What are we thinking for winds? I know it's nearly impossible to get blizzard conditions in our area according to the textbook definition but can we get close?

00Z Euro keeps the 35+ mph winds mostly on the coastline. The 06Z GFS is a different story.  Has sustained 35+ mph for 6+ hours from roughly central Md eastward as well as gusts to 50+. 

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Cobb for Westminter

06z NAM: 1/23 02z to 1/23 18z 1.85 qpf, all snow, with more to fall after this

06z GFS: 1/23 00z to 1/24 15z 2.58 qpf, all snow

That should add some contours to your map:)

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