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Jan 23-24 Storm Banter


ORH_wxman

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Funny how few pages there are on the Mid Atlantic forum in comparison to the New England forum. They are about to get slammed by a monumental blizzard and have under a 100 pages. Meanwhile, we are about to be screwed and have just as many. If we were about to get hit with what's coming their way we'd be up past 300 pages by now!

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It'd be interesting to compare, but I wonder what the return time would be on both winters.  The one that clobbered the MId-Atlantic with 100" or more in like the Maryland suburbs that average like 16" a year, or your winter last year. 

 

The 2009-2010 was more anomalous I'm sure from a pure statistical standpoint.

 

Totally agree.  BWI had 410% of their 1981-2010 average that winter.  (Oops - they were still under the 71-00 norms then, so make that 431%.)  They even had 7" more than CAR - their next closest in 70 winters is -33" and 3rd closest is about 4 feet less.  Given that 09-10 is 14.5" ahead of BWI's #2 winter (95-96) and the length of record, that winter's at least a 100-yr event for them.  For the juxtaposition with CAR, make it 1,000 years.

 

Mahk - if GFS is to be believed, you want to go the extra hundred miles to BWI.

 

 

don't quote me, but i think bos might have done better than car, me on that one -

 

CAR 70.3", BOS 35.7" (according to my data, anyway.)  Of course, that's about 60% of CAR's avg and 85% of Boston's, so looking at it that way, Boston did better.

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Funny how few pages there are on the Mid Atlantic forum in comparison to the New England forum. They are about to get slammed by a monumental blizzard and have under a 100 pages. Meanwhile, we are about to be screwed and have just as many. If we were about to get hit with what's coming their way we'd be up past 300 pages by now!

They have started like 5 different threads. They start a new one when the old one gets too long.

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It'd be interesting to compare, but I wonder what the return time would be on both winters.  The one that clobbered the MId-Atlantic with 100" or more in like the Maryland suburbs that average like 16" a year, or your winter last year. 

 

The 2009-2010 was more anomalous I'm sure from a pure statistical standpoint.

I remember reading that a statistician at MIT ran Boston's climate data and concluded the return period for last year's snowfall was a once in 90,000 year type occurrence. Sounds high to me, but my policy is generally to cross the street when I see statistics coming so...

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I don't understand the logic in the blizzard warnings. Are they trying to score a coup? Increase site traffic? They went all in during the blizzard last year when the Euro was barely clinging to max totals for their CWA. Their actual snow forecast is borderline reasonable to slightly bullish this time, but there is zero reason to issue blizzard watches at this lead time. 

 

Not only that, but why do Orange and Putnam County have a WSW and not coastal Fairfield? It's just strange. When I lived in their CWA I always deferred to Taunton (I was 10 miles SSW of Hartford County).

 

It's a messaging thing. We issue watches based on 50% confidence (not really that high when you think about it). The public sees a watch and thinks the storm is locked in.

 

It's something we're working hard on behind the scenes.

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So we get 100" in a month and not a word from big Louis, but get 2' in the MA and we have press conferences like we just had a terrorist attack...lol. And why did he need to mention about the whole modeling capacity anyways? Someone asked that? It should be on the storm.

No one cares about New England ;)

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