ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 no, ...i'm not going to parse through every word choice used to point out that 'fiddling with reality' aspect... forget it. it's a long shot down that way at best. the real trend is toward nothing. will pan that way ? hell who knows. but it was never about forbidding others from talking about their zones. that's not what is annoying. but again, better things to do with one's time - Hey, don't post in the main storm thread if you think it's a waste of your time...it's really that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 that would be the ultimate FU for those folks...that in my mind is worse or as bad as smoking cirrus getting a few inches of slop lol. That would be pretty bad although I don't think will be the case. Many of the people in the M.A. areas have been pitching tents in their pants for days now over this thing. If this thing pulled up a dud on them that would be a pretty bad scene down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It was absolutely epic down there without question, though not quite on the level of eastern Mass. I believe coastalwx pulled over 100" in just three weeks last year, including two 30" events, and two more in excess of 16", to say nothing of endless OES weenie snows. Edit: Perhaps their seasonal total was more anomalous, but that three week period for us trumps anything IMO. It'd be interesting to compare, but I wonder what the return time would be on both winters. The one that clobbered the MId-Atlantic with 100" or more in like the Maryland suburbs that average like 16" a year, or your winter last year. The 2009-2010 was more anomalous I'm sure from a pure statistical standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There's still a decent part of the subforum that has a shot at decent snow...you're in one of the worst spots up just NW of 495. I'm not much better. But for folks in CT/RI/SE MA, this is still a real threat. God forbid we talk about areas in our own subforum that may get a real storm if your backyard can't. lol yeah. I'm actually enjoying this quite a bit because I know I've got absolutely no shot at all. Its sort of fun analyzing a storm and watching model runs when you know there's nothing in the game for you, so its easy to objectively look at it. Its much harder to objectively look at it when you are like one or two counties away from the big gradient, but its fascinating model drama to watch from afar. Still a good chance its the "storm of the season" for a huge chunk of the eastern seaboard, even if its New England impacts are relegated to the South Coast or something...so naturally as a weather forum that's going to get discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 but there were places that did 15-20 in dec storm, 20-30 in early feb, and another 15-20 just a few days later with depths of 3-4 feet on the level....now that was something for the ages...i mean three block busters in one winter and two of them back to back with little melting...that's right up there with anything 40/70 or coastalwx or orhwxman experienced last winter Hoth linked a Mid-Atl thread from 2011 yesterday. I was reading it yesterday and what stuck out was a poster in Manchester MD (NW of Balt) had a 55" inch peak depth after the last Feb dump. He had already had some type of snow OTG before that Feb 5-10 onslaught, but I don't think anyone in Eastern Mass had a 55" inch depth last year? I cant recall exactly, maybe someone did at the peak? Anyway, that 09-10 and last year in SNE were both insane, but 55" depth 45 mins outside Balt is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hey, don't post in the main storm thread if you think it's a waste of your time...it's really that simple. It's a waste ur time. Which in turn wastes ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's a waste ur time. Which in turn wastes ours http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47644-the-debra-spot/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Oh, i thought you'd pulled it off between Juno and 2/15. Either way, still insanely anomalous. I will have to look...it was close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 OKX torture all day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is what happens when you are emotionally invested in a weather situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What met is bargaining a hit? I think we all have been steadfast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Lol, Min/Likely/Max of 2/10/20 for NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 dear other models: look like the nam today thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 dear other models: look like the nam today thx 'Cosigned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think my decision to go to Philly was a good one. I leave early tomorrow. Will take pics and vids and post them for ya'll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think my decision to go to Philly was a good one. I leave early tomorrow. Will take pics and vids and post them for ya'll.Philly freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 OKX torture all day... I don't understand the logic in the blizzard warnings. Are they trying to score a coup? Increase site traffic? They went all in during the blizzard last year when the Euro was barely clinging to max totals for their CWA. Their actual snow forecast is borderline reasonable to slightly bullish this time, but there is zero reason to issue blizzard watches at this lead time. Not only that, but why do Orange and Putnam County have a WSW and not coastal Fairfield? It's just strange. When I lived in their CWA I always deferred to Taunton (I was 10 miles SSW of Hartford County). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't understand the logic in the blizzard warnings. Are they trying to score a coup? Increase site traffic? They went all in during the blizzard last year when the Euro was barely clinging to max totals for their CWA. Their actual snow forecast is borderline reasonable to slightly bullish this time, but there is zero reason to issue blizzard watches at this lead time. Not only that, but why do Orange and Putnam County have a WSW and not coastal Fairfield? It's just strange. When I lived in their CWA I always deferred to Taunton (I was 10 miles SSW of Hartford County). Still waiting for my 24-36 for the 28 last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Still waiting for my 24-36 for the 28 last year It's a tough forecast, no doubt, and tougher than last year's blizzard. The range in their CWA could be 0-20" and pinning that down at 48 hours lead time is near impossible. Blizzard watches are not prudent whatsoever though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't understand the logic in the blizzard warnings. Are they trying to score a coup? Increase site traffic? They went all in during the blizzard last year when the Euro was barely clinging to max totals for their CWA. Their actual snow forecast is borderline reasonable to slightly bullish this time, but there is zero reason to issue blizzard watches at this lead time. Not only that, but why do Orange and Putnam County have a WSW and not coastal Fairfield? It's just strange. When I lived in their CWA I always deferred to Taunton (I was 10 miles SSW of Hartford County). not exactly the way that all went down, actually ... the euro did in fact back away considerably when the storm was 72 or so hours out in time... it's just that ~ half that ...36 hour lead or so, it backed the ccb shield boldly as far was as far ne pa. which of course turned out to be false. that is when the blizzard/media heightened. but, that was entirely justified considering the euro's verification scores inside of d4 are often indistinguishable from prescience to use hyperbole. it's layed some eggs, sure. it doesn't lay them nearly as frequently as most other guidance with enough separation ... it would have been unwise not to warn in that case. but i don't think it was really "clinging" on when it has well over a foot of 40 kt frigid cold mayhem down into lower manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think my decision to go to Philly was a good one. I leave early tomorrow. Will take pics and vids and post them for ya'll. How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Folks in NYC don't want to look at the 12z GGEM , Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 not exactly the way that all went down, actually ... the euro did in fact back away considerably when the storm was 72 or so hours out in time... it's just that ~ half that ...36 hour lead or so, it backed the ccb shield boldly as far was as far ne pa. which of course turned out to be false. that is when the blizzard/media heightened. but, that was entirely justified considering the euro's verification scores inside of d4 are often indistinguishable from prescience to use hyperbole. it's layed some eggs, sure. it doesn't lay them nearly as frequently as most other guidance with enough separation ... it would have been unwise not to warn in that case. but i don't think it was really "clinging" on when it has well over a foot of 40 kt frigid cold mayhem down into lower manhattan Details can be debated, but they went down with the ship even after hitting the iceberg. Euro gave in towards start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hey Will... Has there ever been a winter where DC, Philly, and NYC all saw more snow than BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hey Will... Has there ever been a winter where DC, Philly, and NYC all saw more snow than BOS? 2009-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 2009-2010 That was the only one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think my decision to go to Philly was a good one. I leave early tomorrow. Will take pics and vids and post them for ya'll. Where in Philly are you staying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah that's what I thought. Saying they had 30 in all 3. Nobody had 30 in all 3. Maybe some 2500 foot mountain in western Maryland did. There were definitely some 30" amounts though in the Dec 2009 and first Feb events. Don't think anyone got 30 in the Miller b feb 9-10 IIRC, there was a WV site at elevation that recorded something like 168" during Feb 2010. Can't remember if 2/10 reached 30" there, and no idea what they had in Dec, but 2/5-6 was definitely over 30" and the late month event was their biggest. Peak depth was "only" in the 50s, so while they beat Jay Peak's 144" in 12/03 and Pinkham's 130" in 2/69, they couldn't approach the triple-digit depths of those two sites. (Or even the 70s-80s in Downeast Maine last Feb.) Wagons north for snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 2009-2010 don't quote me, but i think bos might have done better than car, me on that one - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 That was the only one? I think so but would have to double check. There may have been one I'm missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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