MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LSV is still getting killed at 114, about the same 0.75-1.00" and it looks like a small 1.0-1.25" over I-83 Blizzard's neck of the woods. Moderate still back into the rest of the central counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 2.75"+ qpf from the border to just north of MDT, it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 from mid atlantic forum WOW! Who was able to last year overlay the counties on these maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS is doing ridiculous meso banding yet again that qpf numbers are once again insane and will make the clown maps continue to look pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LSV gets like 3.00+ QPF. ~2.50 MDT. 1.5+ to 80. Everyone else 1.25+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 24"+ for LSV...challenged '96 in southern York and Lancaster Counties...best run yet. All snow. All of PA east of I-99 gets warning criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS is doing ridiculous meso banding yet again that qpf numbers are once again insane and will make the clown maps continue to look pretty The banding may not be too far fetched in a system like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Bob Ross has seen enough of the GFS through hour 108 to whip this up Preview.jpeg dude...absolutely classic..... thx for the chuckle. yeah I think Bob helped draw the 0z up for the LSV. Trends continue for most it seems. 75-100 mile shift is noise at this juncture. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 SV snow maps...everyone gets at least 12". 15"+ for the eastern 1/3rd. LSV 24-30"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The banding may not be too far fetched in a system like this.Tough job for you guys now to downplay it a little while still warning people of what appears to be an historic event coming. Not envious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 WOW! Who was able to last year overlay the counties on these maps? heres a quick one to give an idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is straight up porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The banding may not be too far fetched in a system like this. That run was magical. You can see from the get go that the LSV down along the MD line from 81 on east was gonna get the hammer drop. Still can't believe these runs are happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 heres a quick one to give an idea Thanks 2001kx! Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Seeing the ENTIRE state of PA in at least 10"+ is something to remember. While I'm no met...I've seen a lot of pics in my years. I've just put that one in my 2016 folder.... As we've been in or largely close to the bullseye for this storm...it truely is something I've never seen for so many consecutive runs....in so many different models no less. While I love where I sit. I wish this on anyone on this board. The consistancy has been just utterly stunning. Someone mentioned about doing a grad project on this storm and the modelling. Were I a met in training....I'd be all over that. I'm sure I'll be back in a couple hours. Night night for now. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Thanks 2001kx! Very nice. better color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The banding may not be too far fetched in a system like this. so.......... with the continuity within the models....might you ring the dinner bell any sooner...or does protocol govern? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The CMC places the deform band over...uh...excuse me, I'm just going to take the 105-111 images and...brb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 81 corridor to the LSV gets it nicely on the CMC. 1.50-2.00+ along 81. LSV popping to 3.00. Sharper cutoff back toward UNV-AOO areas. Still 0.75-1.00+ however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Tough job for you guys now to downplay it a little while still warning people of what appears to be an historic event coming. Not envious! It's certainly getting harder to downplay it. Like I said yesterday this would probably still be a big snowstorm even if it didn't get fully captured and stall for a time. My confidence on having a big time storm is about as high as it can get for this timeframe. My questions/concerns have been more like "How sharp will the northern cutoff be?", "Will our region be divided yet again with heavy in the southern tier and only a few inches in the north?", and lastly "Will the truly insane totals actually come to fruition?". I'm not too concerned this would come NW enough for any mixing in our region say in the Sus Valley. That could end up an issue for places like DC but even there I think any mixing would probably go back over to snow when the coastal bombs out. I still worry a more progressive outcome may limit the really heavy stuff to the southern tier, but so far today with the 12z and early on tonight.. it seems it's looking better for the whole state to see at least several inches if not a warning snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I just watched the 3 local Harrisburg CBS, NBC, & ABC 11pm news/weather. They are all mentioning snow possible or likely, but they all still very much downplayed the potential of this storm. On NBC , they mentioned at least a plowable snow. CBS said we may be in the hot spot for the storm. ABC really downplayed it & just said they are watching the coast & some snow is likely. Most people will have NO idea of what could be coming if these modeled snow totals come anywhere close to reality. I know there is no need to cause panic yet, as there is some time for it to change, but a little more info to the public couldn't hurt so families & businesses could make some contingency plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The CMC places the deform band over...uh...excuse me, I'm just going to take the 105-111 images and...brb... u done yet....................... that was funny. I almost spit out my kracken n ginger......... I dont do that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What are winds looking like btw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The North American models put on one heck of an early show tonight! GFS = 32 inches at MDT Canadian = 25 inches at MDT Hopefully the Europeans continue to agree later tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Southern PA gets about 1.75-2" on the GEFS mean. Really starting to thing that this area is going to be absolutely smacked. 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here you go. 0z GEFS spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here you go. 0z GEFS spread 2, 10 and 14 if that happened this board might die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 A lot more members than previous GEFS runs that shaft a lot of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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