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Central PA OMG SNOW thread -- Winter 2016


neff

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Have SREFs ever been right at being off on their own?

Is current radar matching these?

Have the SREFs really ever beat out the global models in a situation like this? Or are they likely to just abruptly correct to the other models as we get closer?

Not that I can recall... They can make dramatic jumps and go from 20" to nothing in a matter of hours... Have seen that before...

But it's funny how they were being analyzed and considered good when not pushing precip into pa but now they are terrible because it's not what the globals show precip wise and shouldn't be trusted without making any comparison to actual conditions...

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Neff taking a beating on the MA forum. LOL

well he posted a map that cuts off the first half of the storm dc south so it looked like they got screwed then said the jackpots in pa now. That's not going to go over well. They still do fine there are just signs from the srefs nam and gfs of a more expansive previp field on the north side. For whatever reason the euro and gem have a very contracted qpf even with a similar track to gfs. Uk was kinda in between the two camps. My gut says the euro gem are too suppressed on the north side and it might even nudge north of the gfs. The Sref are usually overdone so I wouldntbtake this to the bank on the northern 30/40 miles but for central and southern pa it's a good sign especially that some members other then the amp happy arw are getting on board.
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well he posted a map that cuts off the first half of the storm dc south so it looked like they got screwed then said the jackpots in pa now. That's not going to go over well. They still do fine there are just signs from the srefs nam and gfs of a more expansive previp field on the north side. For whatever reason the euro and gem have a very contracted qpf even with a similar track to gfs. Uk was kinda in between the two camps. My gut says the euro gem are too suppressed on the north side and it might even nudge north of the gfs. The Sref are usually overdone so I wouldntbtake this to the bank on the northern 30/40 miles but for central and southern pa it's a good sign especially that some members other then the amp happy arw are getting on board.

People really need to step away from the keyboard if they aren't able to objectively analyze and discuss model output.

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Not that I can recall... They can make dramatic jumps and go from 20" to nothing in a matter of hours... Have seen that before...

But it's funny how they were being analyzed and considered good when not pushing precip into pa but now they are terrible and shouldn't be trusted without making any comparison to actual conditions...

I'll usually cut the SREF means in half (or more) and it ends up being somewhat close. The biggest thing the SREFs CAN do is show you modeling trends. But for the most part, I ignore the numbers and look for clusters

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My coordinates are 40.6N, 78.36W

 

 

21z SREF has State College up to 13" on the mean 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

 

 

KAOO has a 23" mean and a whopping 15 of the 26 members range from pretty much the mean to 53" lol. Another 8 members are between 5-16" leaving the remaining 3 or so with 0". The numbers (as well as ratios too in some members) are insane. Again, obviously probably overdone with the high end numbers but I will simply interpret the SREF's as a continued signal that the heavy precip cutoff may be more on I-80 vs somewhere in between 80 and the turnpike.  This cutoff is going to be extremely difficult to pin down and we probably will be going into the storm arrival tomorrow eve still trying to figure it out. 

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at this point I don't even read the MA forum....not worth the torture of DT beating down on people.

I rather look at the accuweather forums than subject myself to that. Although there's a few members in the mid Atlantic forum who are actually pretty knowledgeable.

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well he posted a map that cuts off the first half of the storm dc south so it looked like they got screwed then said the jackpots in pa now. That's not going to go over well. They still do fine there are just signs from the srefs nam and gfs of a more expansive previp field on the north side. For whatever reason the euro and gem have a very contracted qpf even with a similar track to gfs. Uk was kinda in between the two camps. My gut says the euro gem are too suppressed on the north side and it might even nudge north of the gfs. The Sref are usually overdone so I wouldntbtake this to the bank on the northern 30/40 miles but for central and southern pa it's a good sign especially that some members other then the amp happy arw are getting on board.

 

If Neff did this intentionally this is high-level troll job and I can get behind that.

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Something has to give on these southern globals. Yeah, it's the NAM/SREF, but it's in their supposed "wheelhouse" time now, so there's got to be some consolidation to solutions. It'll probably be tonight.

 

Well with the obscene amount of extra data going in tonight, something is going to give. 

 

Also, if you take anything away from the NAM it should be this image. 

 

61bdb46005faf3d1269984bc94de7fac.png

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Something has to give on these southern globals. Yeah, it's the NAM/SREF, but it's in their supposed "wheelhouse" time now, so there's got to be some consolidation to solutions. It'll probably be tonight.

. The gfs jump north at 18z made me start to consider they are onto a north shift. At the least I now expect a compromise between the two camps.
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