sauss06 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No updates to CTP's probabilistic snow map since 5 am. Weird don't they usually update around lunch time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 FWIW the Canadian DID go south - the 1" qpf barely touches the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No updates to CTP's probabilistic snow map since 5 am. Weird. Waiting for Euro? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just saw LWX post blizzard warning for their area. Hopefully some more northern trends will occur to get everyone in PA into the snow game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Waiting for Euro? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Maybe, they haven't updated the AFD since 6:30 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just saw LWX post blizzard warning for their area. Hopefully some more northern trends will occur to get everyone in PA into the snow game.DC was just upgraded to a blizzard warning. CTP mentioned their concerns for Lancaster getting blizzard conditions, so I really hope that they pull the trigger today. Some people around here are really going to be surprised by the magnitude and duration of the winds. Also, I just saw the RPM in our weather center and it still crushes everyone up to State College. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hahaha NEPA do NOT look at the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1131 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 VALID JAN 21/1200 UTC THRU JAN 25/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ CYCLONE SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...TRANSFERRING TO COASTAL LOW SAT...TRACKING UP MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/CMC BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SPREAD LOOKS QUITE AGREEABLE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A SLOWING OF THE GFS TOWARD THE MEANS AND A QUICKENING OF THE ECMWF TOWARD ITS MEANS EARLY ON. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES/SPREAD INCREASE AFTER 24/00Z MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE HANDLING OF THE PIVOT/SURFACE OCCLUSION STRENGTH NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND/OR TRANSFER TOWARD THE NEW TRIPLE POINT...MOSTLY AFFECTING THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. GENERALLY THE 12Z NAM WAS A BIT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH AND TRANSFERRED TO THE COAST FASTER AND QUICKER THAN MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BRING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TIGHT GRADIENT OVER S NEW ENGLAND...MAKING IT A BIT MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THE 00Z UKMET ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE (SLOWER) RETAINING THE SURFACE OCCLUSION A BIT LONGER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH RAPIDLY TRANSITIONED TO THE NEW TRIPLE POINT BY SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE WESTERN SOLUTION TRANSFERRING INSTEAD TOWARD THE TRIPLE POINT/NEW LOW...TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z CMC AND MUCH LESS LIKE ITS 06Z GEFS MEAN. WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THOUGH INCLUDE THE 00Z CMC BUILDING SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE PARTICULARLY AFTER 24/00Z; CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS AVERAGE IN THIS BLEND SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A few good clippers next week, I'm jumping on the train. Who wants a blizzard when you could have back to back special weather statement events!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wolf declared state of emergency for PA, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS ensembles ticked ever-so-slightly better for us up here. A bigger improvement for MDT (from a 0.80" mean to a 1.13" mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't know that it means anything in the end, but it does look like the precip shield over southern Arkansas is much more robust than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why do I feel like nobody has a damn clue with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wolf declared state of emergency for PA, btw. There's room in the budget for a snow da... ohhhhhhhh that's right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why do I feel like nobody has a damn clue with this one? I'm feeling the same way. The cutoff is so close to the mdt area, that this could be huge or a dusting, and I'm not sure we are going to know that till sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why do I feel like nobody has a damn clue with this one? I'm thinking more and more this will be a minor event here. May very well be wrong, but I have a feeling we'll be on the wrong side of the cutoff and eek out 2-4" maybe. I'm a pessimist today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No snow totals on my point and click Detailed Forecast This Afternoon Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Northwest wind around 9 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Friday Night Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 24. Northeast wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Snow. High near 29. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Snow, mainly before 2am. Low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday A chance of snow before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't look at the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Actually looks a little better south of the turnpike to my ween eyes. Total screw zone remains north of there. Edit: nvmnd, it's slightly worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm thinking more and more this will be a minor event here. May very well be wrong, but I have a feeling we'll be on the wrong side of the cutoff and eek out 2-4" maybe. I'm a pessimist today. Are us northerners starting to rub off on you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Actually looks a little better south of the turnpike to my ween eyes. Total screw zone remains north of there. It really cuts down precip north of Rockville it looks like going into the extreme southern tier. Might not matter since we're so close out and qpf might not be a good read on that model now. Hagerstown is down to 1.5" - like I said qpf might not be a good telling sign this late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There's room in the budget for a snow da... ohhhhhhhh that's right... Atomix wins the thread...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is gonna come down to mesoscale models in all reality. No consistency from the globals Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't know that it means anything in the end, but it does look like the precip shield over southern Arkansas is much more robust than modeled. The 12z Euro has the main precip shield right now south of Shreveport. In reality, it's mostly north of Shreveport. I think it's almost radar-watching time. If we can get more precip than modeled up to Paducah by tomorrow morning, we might still have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z Euro has the main precip shield right now south of Shreveport. In reality, it's mostly north of Shreveport. I think it's almost radar-watching time. If we can get more precip than modeled up to Paducah by tomorrow morning, we might still have a shot. The euro really has been all over the place with this one. GFS has been consistent not that it is all that much better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If not unv and ipt get clippered next week. I at least want one successful occasion of sled riding this year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RPM model huge hit is that model any good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RPM model huge hit is that model any good Superstorm upthread posted he saw at the MU weather center and it took heavy snow all the way to State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z Euro has the main precip shield right now south of Shreveport. In reality, it's mostly north of Shreveport. I think it's almost radar-watching time. If we can get more precip than modeled up to Paducah by tomorrow morning, we might still have a shot. Btw, not sure it means anything, but NAM sim radar looks pretty close to reality right now....if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Superstorm upthread posted he saw at the MU weather center and it took heavy snow all the way to State College. Look very good. Not sure I can post it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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