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Central PA OMG SNOW thread -- Winter 2016


neff

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i am so trying to not get overly excited, but pretty soon i'm gonna need some tissues to clean up.  :whistle:

thanks for the visual...

 

 

NOT!!

 

Lets just keep it real gang...headed in the right direction but we aint there yet.  If it holds...and tomorrows 12z hold serve....then I might say....break the tissues out (for whatever puposes...just nasty.)

 

Nut

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That is awesome! Thanks for doing that. Love those county overlays when we have these tight cutoffs. We are really fighting the cutoff in Pittsburgh area.

NAM qpf output goes from .31" in PIT to 1.37" in AOO to 2-2.25" for MDT/THV/LNS through 84 hours... wide area of 1"+ but needs to nudge west for PIT to join the party

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They launched blizzard watches for DC, MD and VA.

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-505-506-
202315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

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I think this guy might be right from accuweather forum

Class GFS nonsense. Jumps the energy out too fast and too far east. With the amount of cold on land and the very warm water, the natural baroclynic zone will along the coast. You can see it try and reform a SLP farther west, but it messes up the QPF fields. I would not get discouraged by this. As it gets closer in time, the GFS will fix this shearing out issue

Yes. It shears out the energy too fast and tries to pop a new low over the heavy convection out to sea. It does this a lot. You can see it fighting with itself. Expect a tighter compact low closer to the coast. Maybe not to the extreme of the NAM, but not what this is showing

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I think this guy might be right from accuweather forum

Class GFS nonsense. Jumps the energy out too fast and too far east. With the amount of cold on land and the very warm water, the natural baroclynic zone will along the coast. You can see it try and reform a SLP farther west, but it messes up the QPF fields. I would not get discouraged by this. As it gets closer in time, the GFS will fix this shearing out issue

Yes. It shears out the energy too fast and tries to pop a new low over the heavy convection out to sea. It does this a lot. You can see it fighting with itself. Expect a tighter compact low closer to the coast. Maybe not to the extreme of the NAM, but not what this is showing

In agreement

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I read this somewhere else but in the past 20 years it seems that these storms take on a more miller B look to them (miller A/miller B hybrid), rather than a full fledge miller A.

May explain why we have seen so many of the big storms with these tight gradients.

It may be just me, but growing up it was always a rain/snow concern.

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