NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No real differences between the 12z NAM at 36 and 6z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1343Z WED JAN 20 2016 THE 12Z NAM BEGAN AND IS RUNNING ON TIME WITH 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...73 CONUS...9 MEXICAN...AND 8 CARIBBEAN RAOB REPORTS AVAILABLE FOR INGEST. 12Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 70414/SYA - MISSING TTBB 76225/CUU - 10156...WEAK SIGNAL 78073/NAS - 10148...ASCENT NOT AUTHORIZED FOR THIS PERIOD 91348/PNI - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 673-671 MB, 613-610 MB...SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE 91376/MAJ - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 767-756 MB...SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE 78970/POS - PURGED ALL HGTS/TEMPS...PORTIONS LOW/COLD CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS... CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUE TO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE U.S. EAST COAST. IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z. ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM. *** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS *** CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600Z SOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z. EASTERN REGION: WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z. READY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Regardless what happens this weekend, we all owe NEP a beer for his PBP efforts the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Maybe a little more digging at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 45, would estimate a 1004 low around NW AL. Near the TN border at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 54 might be a hair further north with the primary getting slightly across the AL/TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know we haven't talked about ratio's, just wondering if they are going to be a little better than 10-1. As usual Wmsptwx and myself hanging on the edge. :-) but at least this storm should be the biggest storm of the year for us. Even if we only get an 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 60 shows the secondary starting to form around the Carolina coast. Precip a little further north than 6z/66, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I dunno, more like 100% of the ensembles are south for up here. off hour......... we toss it..... I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 66 has a sub-1000 around the OBX. LSV into 0.1+ precip. 69 996 just off ORF. 0.1-0.25+ LSV. 72 LSV getting hammered, but precip starting to hit the wall near 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 2 runs the Nam has showed us some love...GO NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know we haven't talked about ratio's, just wondering if they are going to be a little better than 10-1. As usual Wmsptwx and myself hanging on the edge. :-) but at least this storm should be the biggest storm of the year for us. Even if we only get an 1" yes 12:1 being tossed around from what I've read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM is going weather porn on the LSV. And the good precip is trying to spread NE at 78...H7 looks great. 81 is such a close call 80N. You could be going from flurries to heavy snow in a short time. It's also giving a moderate hit into true central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM is going weather porn on the LSV. And the good precip is trying to spread NE at 78...H7 looks great. 81 is such a close call 80N. You could be going from flurries to heavy snow in a short time. Still fringes us up here. Still would prefer the past couple operational GFS runs. But it is an improvement over the 06z NAM, which I'll take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ugh so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM must be quite delicious for the southern tier to MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You basically just need a butterfly fart to push this up to a point where everyone here goes home happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's 2'+ for LSV. Beautiful run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Honestly, the maps remind me so much of 1996, with lower parts of NEPA getting major snow but the northern tier seeing nada. Anyway, this is my last PBP until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z NAM from my view actually retrogrades between 78-81-84 and at 84 is approx 50 miles s/w of its position at 78..... Full capture/stall?? Thank you....thank you...thank you.. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Counties overlay EDIT: And the snow map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Counties overlay PA_counties_NAM.png Was just wondering, how do you do that? Was coming over to post the E-wall map but ninja'd I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That NAM run is ridiculous in how amazing it was. H5 was pure wx porn. Back to work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lol I could take a 15 minute ride from nothing to 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Was just wondering, how do you do that? Was coming over to post the E-wall map but ninja'd I guess Used GIMP to overlay a resized county map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i am so trying to not get overly excited, but pretty soon i'm gonna need some tissues to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i am so trying to not get overly excited, but pretty soon i'm gonna need some tissues to clean up. ROFLMAO Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Used GIMP to overlay a resized county map. GIMP is not the preferred nomenclature, "mentally disabled", please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro OP parallel NW Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Counties overlay PA_counties_NAM.png EDIT: And the snow map... PA_counties_NAM_snow.png That is awesome! Thanks for doing that. Love those county overlays when we have these tight cutoffs. We are really fighting the cutoff in Pittsburgh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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