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Central PA OMG SNOW thread -- Winter 2016


neff

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00z Parallel GFS is a monster for many here. Does anyone have more information about the parallel version? Is it a test replacement?

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2016-01-20 at 6.57.59 AM.png

I am pretty sure it is actually scheduled to become the new operational in March or April if I remember correctly. There are only a couple of minor changes to correct a couple of issues.

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1201 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 23 2016 - 12Z WED JAN 27 2016

MODEL CHOICES AND CONFIDENCE...

CHOICES ARE LARGELY A RESULT OF THOSE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN

THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE THE

GREATEST SUPPORT FROM OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES. OF

THESE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN THE

STEADIEST DESPITE IRONING OUT IMPORTANT SYSTEM DETAILS...WITH THE

GFS A CLOSE SECOND AND THE ECMWF THE WORST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS

SO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS

IN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALL

IN THE BLENDING PROCESS.

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Morning gang....

 

Can we send this to DT??

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You guys seemed to have a lot of fun in here last night, after being up at 230 yesterday no way i could hang. Canderson snafu was a classic as well as the obit for Eskimo. Good chit. Digging last nights models, like the north movement. I think for those of us in the southern tier counties have a legit shot at double digits. I'm pretty pumped. 

Something i haven't seen talked of much is the wind, as i read it may be closer to the coast, can we anticipate greater winds associated with the storm because of this?

Then get a nap when you get home tonight....cause if things hold serve I/we will be at it again.

You guys seemed to have a lot of fun in here last night, after being up at 230 yesterday no way i could hang. Canderson snafu was a classic as well as the obit for Eskimo. Good chit. Digging last nights models, like the north movement. I think for those of us in the southern tier counties have a legit shot at double digits. I'm pretty pumped. 

Something i haven't seen talked of much is the wind, as i read it may be closer to the coast, can we anticipate greater winds associated with the storm because of this?

 

Except I may be doing my pbp w/ booze in my hand...  :)

 

It was fun, and the trends surely helped that.

 

Nut

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Then get a nap when you get home tonight....cause if things hold serve I/we will be at it again.

You guys seemed to have a lot of fun in here last night, after being up at 230 yesterday no way i could hang. Canderson snafu was a classic as well as the obit for Eskimo. Good chit. Digging last nights models, like the north movement. I think for those of us in the southern tier counties have a legit shot at double digits. I'm pretty pumped. 

Something i haven't seen talked of much is the wind, as i read it may be closer to the coast, can we anticipate greater winds associated with the storm because of this?

 

Except I may be doing my pbp w/ booze in my hand...  :)

 

It was fun, and the trends surely helped that.

 

Nut

 

I would heavily suggest it, Nut. These models drive you to drink especially for us right now. :-)

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06Z GFS Cobb shows 23.2" from 2.04" qpf for KMDT.

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kmdt

Looking at this, its not starting until the overnight hours. I was thinking it was starting here early evening.

 

I just text my daughter who goes to Millersville, told her to go buy a snow shovel ASAP. I thought i got her everything she needs, forgot a fricking shovel

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Looking at this, its not starting until the overnight hours. I was thinking it was starting here early evening.

I just text my daughter who goes to Millersville, told her to go buy a snow shovel ASAP. I thought i got her everything she needs, forgot a fricking shovel

I don't think I never shoveled my walk at Penn State. I was always in the "It will melt" campaign.

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I don't think I never shoveled my walk at Penn State. I was always in the "It will melt" campaign.

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Not shovel her walks, to shovel out her car, or in the event she gets stuck. as much as we pay for rent, screw the walks, let the maintenance guys do it 

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I see we're not mentioning the horrible, horrible 06z GFS ensembles. :P

all 3 ensembles gfs ggem and eps can't shake the south camp. While the op runs tend to favor the north idea about 40% of the ens for all 3 have a south track. Many even miss dc. Obviously the higher resolution ops favor the north idea with the exception of one euro run. So the question is dies the higher resolutions make them better at handling this or are they going overboard with the system.
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all 3 ensembles gfs ggem and eps can't shake the south camp. While the op runs tend to favor the north idea about 40% of the ens for all 3 have a south track. Many even miss dc. Obviously the higher resolution ops favor the north idea with the exception of one euro run. So the question is dies the higher resolutions make them better at handling this or are they going overboard with the system.

How far south are you talking with some of the individuals - like nothing PHL north or so?

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all 3 ensembles gfs ggem and eps can't shake the south camp. While the op runs tend to favor the north idea about 40% of the ens for all 3 have a south track. Many even miss dc. Obviously the higher resolution ops favor the north idea with the exception of one euro run. So the question is dies the higher resolutions make them better at handling this or are they going overboard with the system.

 

 even some of the SREF members continue to completely miss DC and the timing is so far off that it makes the mean a little goofy

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How far south are you talking with some of the individuals - like nothing PHL north or so?

I counted 6/21 gfs members that get nothing or less then a few inches to me. I'm a few miles south of the pa border. 3 miss dc even. And a few more get decent snow not nothing big to Mason Dixon line. Then the other half go hog wild like the op.
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There only seems to be a couple. not the 40% hoffman implies...

that's only 12 of the 21 gfs ensembles. I don't know why ewall doesn't post them all but I've seen them all. 6 get very little and a few others I get fringed. I kinda counted those as a miss because most of you are north of me and honestly if I get 6" while dc gets 25" I won't really enjoy that. Plus it's way to close when the sharp edge is right over you. So overall it's a 60/40 split if op like runs and ones similar to yesterday's euro or even worse.
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Yeah, I mean, we know we're in trouble 80N. But I'm talking about this subforum as a whole; still, guess there were more members as noted.

 

I guess my point is, these are even worse than the 00z ensembles.

 

But there are potential caveats, of course, and psuhoffman mentioned one of them.

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