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Central PA OMG SNOW thread -- Winter 2016


neff

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GFS was a good run. pretty consistent with the last run. Everything is going to come down to that H5 close off. When and where will decide who gets raked and who doesn't. You can see the NW side is still a tight gradient due to the confluence up north. That may be the area that takes the loss. I think State College will be the town right on the edge when all said and done. That I80 corridor. But you can see the general idea of where the best now is and how places like MDT are not gonna get shutout, but they will get snow in the 6-12" range with more on the southern and eastern side and less the further NW you go. Also, that extreme ludicrous band in southern MD actually robbed the region in the southern tier of more snow due the fact the lift in that area was so intense to get that, the subsidence around it was "brutal" to the standards of what was happening there compared to elsewhere. Overall, not a bad run. Btw, the 300mb jet depiction at 18z Saturday is a site to behold!!

I wonder if the blob down towards Baltimore is a convective feedback issues that rob southern tier moisture.
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GFS was a good run. pretty consistent with the last run. Everything is going to come down to that H5 close off. When and where will decide who gets raked and who doesn't. You can see the NW side is still a tight gradient due to the confluence up north. That may be the area that takes the loss. I think State College will be the town right on the edge when all said and done. That I80 corridor. But you can see the general idea of where the best now is and how places like MDT are not gonna get shutout, but they will get snow in the 6-12" range with more on the southern and eastern side and less the further NW you go. Also, that extreme ludicrous band in southern MD actually robbed the region in the southern tier of more snow due the fact the lift in that area was so intense to get that, the subsidence around it was "brutal" to the standards of what was happening there compared to elsewhere. Overall, not a bad run. Btw, the 300mb jet depiction at 18z Saturday is a site to behold!!

Question, Eric Horst and JB both believe the storm will come back north due to warm Atlantic waters. Does that make sense to you, an what would cause that to happen?

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I wonder if the blob down towards Baltimore is a convective feedback issues that rob southern tier moisture.

 

The convective parameterization of the model can sometimes lead to these insane bands or blobs as you will that of course would rob other areas around them due to the lift/subsidence zones near the proposed QPF maximum. I guarantee if that wasn't there, there would probably be a more reasonable distribution of the band due to increased lift over the deformation zone. It was actually brought up in the MA forum as well.  

Question, Eric Horst and JB both believe the storm will come back north due to warm Atlantic waters. Does that make sense to you, an what would cause that to happen?

 

The low pressure would want to jump to warmer waters due to the increased baroclinic region to help the low develop. It's basically the atmosphere trying to energize itself the best way that it can. Always about balance  :)

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The convective parameterization of the model can sometimes lead to these insane bands or blobs as you will that of course would rob other areas around them due to the lift/subsidence zones near the proposed QPF maximum. I guarantee if that wasn't there, there would probably be a more reasonable distribution of the band due to increased lift over the deformation zone. It was actually brought up in the MA forum as well.  

 

The low pressure would want to jump to warmer waters due to the increased baroclinic region to help the low develop. It's basically the atmosphere trying to energize itself the best way that it can. Always about balance  :)

Thank you. I'm sure there's still going to be more surprises in store with this one. 

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south trend in the 3-4 day range is not uncommon, and it's usually followed by a northerly correction closer to the event. Everybody remember to breathe. Besides, it's just snow. It happens every year.

 

This could very well be my last winter here, and I've yet to see a >8" snow event in State College. A bit frustrating being here five years and being mostly relegated to small stuff... though I think that is the climatology here. Anyway, as others have said, still a long ways to go with this one. It could come north, could go further south, or could end up right where the models have it now. Which isn't a helpful statement, but it's true--nobody knows just yet. I do like the notion that these storms tend to tick north in the last 24-48 hours as they approach.

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This could very well be my last winter here, and I've yet to see a >8" snow event in State College. A bit frustrating being here five years and being mostly relegated to small stuff... though I think that is the climatology here. Anyway, as others have said, still a long ways to go with this one. It could come north, could go further south, or could end up right where the models have it now.

 

I think the event in February 2014 had about 9.5", at least at the coop site.

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I'm not enthused that the Euro has shifted south. Personally, I want to see the bullseye of one of these big storms for a change. But I digress... at any rate I guess we're going to find out ultimately which models handle this pattern the best as we start to get into the short range and zero this storm in. 

 
The Euro could certainly be the model that (as usual) is starting to zero in on things first (which would unfortunately for us be a more southern solution) but the op has not been the most consistent of the bunch the last several days with the heavy snow swath or the storm in general IMO. I know there'd be a certain couple folks that would disagree with me there but it did have a 30+ swath across PA and today's run is about a complete miss except for the extreme southern tier. In between that it had been oscillating between sig snow in southern PA and not much at all. Going back even further when the GFS initially hinted at this in the d8-10 timeframe the Euro had a cutoff mess in the south with the Mid-Altantic flooded with warm air aloft.  It's weird to see the GFS consistently hang onto a more northern solution when it's usually the model we're waiting for to get up to our latitude but it has started to edge south a bit while losing some of the very extreme amounts. 
 
Part of me wonders if the Euro has the best shot in this particular regime, being a amplified pattern with short wavelengths while still being somewhat progressive. Could it be slowing & amplifying things too much? Once again a comparison at 500mb today vs the GFS shows the Euro bringing in a stronger closed off 500mb shortwave into the west coast driving up the ridge and thus digging the 500mb low with our storm notably further south. In a more traditional setup with an anchored western ridge more amplification would be a good thing but in this case with the progression.. it pushes the 500mb low toward the east before it can gain the latitude. 
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This could very well be my last winter here, and I've yet to see a >8" snow event in State College. A bit frustrating being here five years and being mostly relegated to small stuff... though I think that is the climatology here. Anyway, as others have said, still a long ways to go with this one. It could come north, could go further south, or could end up right where the models have it now. Which isn't a helpful statement, but it's true--nobody knows just yet. I do like the notion that these storms tend to tick north in the last 24-48 hours as they approach.

I've spent the majority of my life just down the other side of Pine Grove Mountain and I can tell you, in my thirty years; significant snows have become increasingly more rare. I won't even begin to speculate why but I was born in 1985 so the first real memory I have of snow is the 1993 superstorm. It seems that around here, you get them very big or not at all. The location of Central Pennsylvania is almost like an ridge and valley desert in that the mountains will kill the lake effect (Huron streamers notwithstanding) and it's just too far for the coastals to really jack up (major storm notwithstanding). Nickle and dime is the name of the game.

Central Pennsylvania, true Central Pennsylvania, everything is three yards and a cloud of dust.

I'm sorry (I'm assuming) you went to Weather U. and didn't get any weather lol

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18z GEFS ain't pretty for a PA snowstorm. If 0z models shift south again we might be on the edge of storm cancel.

At this point I honestly just can't get mad anymore, and it's not just because of my hopeful Saturday plans. It does suck that I just threw down 20 bucks to get SV access and now this is happening, but...meh. I'll expand in banter.

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Agreed, I am not jumping yet. And look, it's still has us in the 6-8

Only About a 60 mile shift north is needed & we're back in the 12+ range.

We've been through this song & dance so many times, especially

With the big storms. Normally the model confusion is much worse at this range. I think we are in good spot & this will come back north, but probably not to the extent of the crazy high totals some models were spitting out.

I think MDT has a good chance to see a double digit storm total when all is said & done.

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Thank goodness I am not desperate enough to listen to this radio show and DT telling everyone how right he was all along that it was going south and Richmond is getting 2' of snow. He is over in the MA showing every graphic that is south.

except i cant figure out what he is actually forecasting.  A couple days ago he was screaming this is like 1983 to everyone in that forum and when models were north of that analog it made sense that he was saying it will come south.  But not just about everything is south of that analog and he is still pointing out even further south runs.  So what is he actually forecasting???

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