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Central PA OMG SNOW thread -- Winter 2016


neff

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Has anyone heard from/about Zach? He would be going nuts, but unsure of his health currently.

 

Last I had heard, he joined with S&S. But that was a few months ago.

 

Edit: looks like he's alive and kicking per facebook, just posted euro snow totals for the MA

 

Euro shows 16 for LNS, 17 for MDT, and PA jackpot  around Adams/Franklin counties.

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More symbolic than anything.  I use them inside 60 hours.  Frankly, unless the EURO/UKMET go to dirt, I don't really use them inside 36-48 hours.  They're more mid range.  

well at least we dont have that to worry about.....................

 

so far...........

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OT, but wx related, that TOR in Lancaster County this past fall happened about a mile from our new house, the night we settled on it. Had no idea it happened until I went to Lowes the following morning and saw damage, followed by the NWS survey crew flying overhead.

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Horst:Here's my "probabilistic forecast" for LanCo--accounts for various uncertainties: 20% chc of< 6", 40% chc 6-12", 30%chc 12-20", 10% chc 20"+

So he's slightly skewed to the 12+side of the umbrellla.....interesting. His neck shouldnt hurt too much given todays guidance..

 

Nut

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So he's slightly skewed to the 12+side of the umbrellla.....interesting. His neck shouldnt hurt too much given todays guidance..

 

Nut

I can't recall Eric being that bullish this far out. When  I read that this afternoon I got very excited. However...to be very clear, he stated that this storm has bust potential. So this journey still has a long way to go...

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NCEP Operational Status Message Tue Jan 19 01:54:46 2016 GMT

NOUS42 KWNO 190154

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

0152Z TUE JAN 19 2016

THE 00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON-TIME...

00Z RAOB RECAP..

70414/SYA - N/A FOR THE NAM

76458/MZT - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS..

76654/MZL - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS..

76692/HYY - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS..

SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

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OT, but wx related, that TOR in Lancaster County this past fall happened about a mile from our new house, the night we settled on it. Had no idea it happened until I went to Lowes the following morning and saw damage, followed by the NWS survey crew flying overhead.

Did you post under a different name previously?
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Relevant info from latest AFD:

 

 

BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS THIS FAR OUT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO CWA BEING ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. CONSENSUS PTYPE IS SNOW...WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN
PLACE. KEEP IN MIND THAT OBVIOUSLY IT/S STILL FAR TOO EARLY TO
SAY FOR CERTAIN 4-5 DAYS OUT...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE WAVE DRIVING
THIS ISN/T EVEN TO THE WEST COAST YET. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
VARIABLES IN PLAY THAT COULD IMPACT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

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Relevant info from latest AFD:

 

That's the best road to go down through 00z runs Thursday.  

 

Still, I'm not sure I can recall seeing 70% pops for a storm 4-5 days away...

 

Friday
Snow likely, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
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