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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter


stormtracker

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that's not quite true. The data feed to that site is completely unreliable, so the maps may not always come in. But the model is running every cycle, and when the maps are available for us to see, they can't be completely ignored. This is the next version of the ECWMF model; it has been thoroughly tested and approved for implementation in 7 weeks. It's not someone randomly tweaking parts of the model. It's scoring well.

If you want to make the argument that this run from last night had basically zero support in today's deterministic and ensemble guidance (wish we could have seen the 12z ECMWF parallel), that is a better point to make.

Strongly agree with all points you've made here. But it is the outlier it seems.
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It has to be due to an easier setup for guidance to identify...we certainly haven't improved that much across all guidance that quickly.

Isn't there a pretty good track record for major Miller A storms?  They've historically been the easiest type for the models to sniff out. Even 1993 was well-forecast.

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It has to be due to an easier setup for guidance to identify...we certainly haven't improved that much across all guidance that quickly.

If the storm pans out as modeled for days those running these models need to pour through the details to help figure out what works best and why. Could be a good research project.

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Not to get too off-topic here, but yeah, the ratios around DC and north weren't exactly great for that PD storm.  It was very cold, but also as I remember it, kind of dry in the dendritic growth region around these parts.  I still got 4" of pixie-dust from that all the same, but yeah, and under-performer.

 

The initial thump was awesome...very showery snow that accumulated really well....

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