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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter


stormtracker

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I've been waiting for this. Of course hoping it wouldn't happen. But we've never had a long lead storm not scare us a few times as we close in. Euro could be right of course but I would have to assume this is probably close to as south as you can go. 

I agree. We were due for a weird run like this. Oddly it still has me basically the same at 20". I am on the northern edge of the good stuff instead of the southern edge lol

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And (hopefully not banter), I'd rather be on the colder side at this point. Hard to believe with the anomalously warm Atlantic shelf waters and such a dynamic system we won't see a nudge back northward. At least for the cities on east.

I think you remember RIC being in the bullseye 48 hours out in 2003, and how it worked out.  IIRC, those same NWP schemes showed nothing north of Baltimore and widespread 2'+ for all of CVA but clearly did not come to pass.

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I just digs deeper early on and keeps everything south. It's the same solution synoptically just in a different place. lol

 

Yeah, you are skilled at this but does it make sense meteorologically that the 500 mb low should move east

in this situation?

My understanding is that as these troughs deepen, they tend to move

poleward and in this situation, there is no convergence zone north of the trough.  So why

would it trend east rather than NE?

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A few thoughts from a lurker...

  1. Each model run is more important than the last.  When the latest run of the best model out there makes a shift, you should take notice and not just assume it is some sort of blip.
  2. Watching the storms over the years, they typically do tend to shift to the NW as the vent draws near.  This winter, however, is not a typical winter and with the strong confluence to the north that is far from a guarantee.

My $.02

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A few thoughts from a lurker...

  1. Each model run is more important than the last.  When the latest run of the best model out there makes a shift, you should take notice and not just assume it is some sort of blip.
  2. Watching the storms over the years, they typically do tend to shift to the NW as the vent draws near.  This winter, however, is not a typical winter and with the strong confluence to the north that is far from a guarantee.

My $.02

This makes sense, but we've seen a shift NW (in the limited instances we've seen dynamic systems) this winter as well.

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