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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter


stormtracker

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Man. Im trying to work and look at models at the same time. Work is suffering. The 12z gfs run is the dream scenario for our area. Everyone. Gets close to 2 feet. The gem is the dream track for the Shenandoah valley. And is similar to the euro snow totals but it gets there a different way. Its awesome that we can have different solutions still crush all of us. Its because of that perfect 500 level that is being depicted on all of the models. We wont know who gets that defirm band until game time regardless.

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To get an idea of forecast confidence leading up to 2/5-6/10, click on articles here:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/31-week/

 

At least for CWG, there was much less confidence *two* days ahead for 2/5-6/10 than what Wes/Jason are expressing today *three* days ahead. 

There were multiple model upgrades and more tools since then, but interesting comparison for sure.

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Definite shift back e/se on max on GEFS members since 0z at least. But think we're still seeing stuff mostly bounce around within bounds that have set up. Better to have that kind of shift than north at this point.

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Was thinking exactly the same thing when I saw your post.

 

Also, will someone take the time and explain what exactly a "full capture" is.

 

The very simple version is when a closed h5 low sucks the 850 low into it's grip and doesn't let go. That's why many of the runs have a stall for like 12 hours. They join forces as rapid intensification takes place. 

 

6z gfs closed h5 off much later than other runs and the low was able to scoot away to the NE. It was still a big hit but nothing like what we saw with the 12z run. 

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Agreed. My only real concern at this point would be what those members are showing. Suppression. Any idea how strong the hp's are on thise 3 members?

 

About the same in the 1029-30 range. I ran the loops. I'm not worried about what they are showing. 2 of them take the low across the deep south and off the SC coast. Basically no latitude gain. That aint happening. One was just squashed enough but followed the general op ideas. Until we actually see an op move substantially in that direction there is absolutely no fears based on a couple outliers. 

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