Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016

HIGHLIGHTS...

LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE

POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY

THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE

RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES.

COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE

SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO

THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS

SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN

THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES

NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN

MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT

MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE

NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER

NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER

EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE

AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND

TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN.

IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS

WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF

THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS

FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS

ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE.

IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE

PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z

GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL

AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR

TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS

MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN

ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN

IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE

CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR

THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND

THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM

NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN

NEW ENGLAND.

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL

DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS

IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE

JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY

2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY

TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR

SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.

IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO

DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL

INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE...

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT

ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO

IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL

SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE

TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE

FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH

AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS

PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF

PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE.

KOCIN

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kocin:

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS
IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE
JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY
2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY
TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR
SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kocin:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL

DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS

IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE

JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY

2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY

TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR

SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.

Saved
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kocin:

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL

DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS

IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE

JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY

2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY

TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR

SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.

 

Does he mean January 2016 is likely to be more widespread/heavy?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does he mean January 2016 is likely to be more widespread/heavy?

 

probably similar to the others.  jan 96, if you just look at the radar, it was legendary.  that would be tough to top.  gonna be an interesting next couple of days to say the least.

 

while we're in between runs...here's the '96 loop:

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=1996&month=1&day=6&hour=0&minute=0

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can we qualify some statements that are often made here. The inner banks of NC are not the outer banks. The low above featured on the UKMET is clearly inside the OBX near Wilmington.

 

There is no 108 panel so we can't really tell...

 

120 FWIW -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...