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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter


stormtracker

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So you think maybe the front end snow then sorta light snow/drizzle for couple hours then coastal gets it going?

Possibly, it made up for it later in the run when the low elongated and pulled the precip back to the southwest. Good run verbatim, but less room for error.

 

Edit: Yeah coastal formed further south this run after the primary went further north. Odd.

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Even still, the clown map from the GFS is an awful lot from DCA-BWI and points east. That's the good news with a more amped up system...yes the likelihood of some mixing if not changeover, maybe a risk of dry slottage for a short period, but a better def band to follow. Wasn't Feb 5-6 2010 similar in that regard?

I actually was not here for the 2010 storm.

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Crazy QPF numbers. Euro was crazy as well but max was S/W of the GFS. I dont know if I have ever seen the globals spit out these kind of QPF numbers before:

 

gfs_apcpn_us_21.png

 

 

Really think the outrageous QPF has to do with the elevated water temps off the SE coast and GOM.  All the more enabled by the projected fetch of moisture, which will eventually draw from the Eastern Pacific off of Western coast of Central America.  This is going to be one heck of a moisture plume once it gets cranking after the ULL transfers (and before the transfer too).  Just MHO.

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Oddly the NAM at 84 hrs which is typically useless at that range has a potent surface low very close to the global solutions.

Barring a shift in guidance based on better model handling of the pacific energy...I don't see this heading out to sea or any large track shifts. I do expect to see minor shifts in the mix line and duration.

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 FOLKS  if   you BUY the   0Z  OP gfs    and   you accept  the  r/s line getting into   DC  BWI  then    WHY   are  folks using   15 to 1  snow ratio   whene the ratio is far more likely to be  7  to 1?

Won't the ratio be 7-1 (or less if sleet) only for a short period of time, with average (10:1) ratios at start and above average ratios for the final 12-18 hours with high rates at times..?

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Only three 12"+ snowstorms have over 2" liquid in DC. Two are the top two snowstorms. 1922, 1899. Of course Snowmageddon should be in that list too if you believe all the surrounding obs and remember DCA is the worst.  Mar 1958 dropped 3.75" but it was mostly rain.. in the city.

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Surprised the 00z GFS got the mix line into DC - just looking at the LOW, it was a little SE of the 18z run (not by much tho but an improvement). SO thought the temps might be a bit better but they weren't. But as others have said, it is a SNOW-SLEET-SNOW mix, which I will take. Temps we can debate on Wednesday/Thursday/Friday... but love the continued large snow amounts. Hope it continues. 3 days to go.

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