Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"

[tnweathernut]

For sure, but I am not sure how I feel about their statement either.   I am reading through their other discussions.  They really like the 18zGFS in their model discussions which FWIW had depended heavily on backside snow for any accumulation w/ system #2.  The Euro has more historical amounts.  But yeah, was not expecting that and really no model that I have looked at looks historical in terms of snow amounts for anyone in the Valley, east or west.  But thought it was worth sharing.  Interesting to see the '96 analog show up.  BTW, most folks use analogs not as the end all be all...but just to make sure that what the models are doing makes sense.  So, if this set-up has been seen before...then it helps w/ confidence levels if the current models are showing a similar result. 

 

Truly, I am following this because it is one of those events that we may potentially not see very often...that does not mean we get a flake here, but we can learn from it. 

I read that excerpt a couple of times and after reading it, I think he is saying "historic" in terms of what the Mid-Atlantic might see. For the eastern OH and TN Valleys 4-8 wouldn't be historic, but would certainly be worth mentioning in their paragraph where the "snow shield" could start.  Just my opinion.

[Carvers Gap]

Going to be interesting to see the 12z suite.  The 12z NAM(has its issues at its later hours) is further north w/ its snow axis, encompassing most of Ohio.  Also has a big dry slot over the eastern 1/3 of TN w/ some snow shower activity in northern middle and west TN as the secondary forms.  Even a good portion of Virginia is rain.  Also, some CAD in the western half of North Carolina.  The Euro, GEM, and UKIE are all colder at the surface and a bit further south.  So, will be watching at 12z to see how this begins to get sorted out.

[Carvers Gap]

I read that excerpt a couple of times and after reading it, I think he is saying "historic" in terms of what the Mid-Atlantic might see. For the eastern OH and TN Valleys 4-8 wouldn't be historic, but would certainly be worth mentioning in their paragraph where the "snow shield" could start.  Just my opinion.

 

And maybe it could also mean "historic" in terms of the number of people impacted...like 60-100 million people if things line-up correctly. 

[Runman292]

If they're comparing it to January 1996 (aka Blizzard of 96), Knoxville got 5 inches.

[tnweathernut]

If they're comparing it to January 1996 (aka Blizzard of 96), Knoxville got 5 inches.

I think the setup is very similar, but the cold was a little better before, during, and coming behind the system.  At 500mb it's a pretty close match.

[Carvers Gap]

If they're comparing it to January 1996 (aka Blizzard of 96), Knoxville got 5 inches.

 

I know everyone likes to talk about Nashville getting less snow than climo, but Knoxville was flat-out robbed on that one.  I lived in Knoxville and was happy w/ my 6" until I called home in Kingsport.  The had well over a foot.  There were two storms, one in late Jan and one in the first half of Feb.  People in the Tri-Cities wanted the snow to stop.   I can remember driving home and seeing piles of snow in the parking lots.  It was like driving to another world that was like the tundra.  I was pretty ill that I had missed out on that. 

[tnweathernut]

Paul Kocin - past Weather Channel met, co-author of a textbook on east coast storms says the following about the late week/weekend system.....

 

"the mechanisms coming together for a major snowfall are textbook".  He also references January of 1996, and the big east coast storms in 2003 and 2010.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS took a decent step towards the 0z Euro/EPS/UKMET/yesterday's JMA. @ 72h the primary low is in southern TN over the AL/MS border. The 6z GFS was in southwest KY. That means the entry point into the Valley is different. Trough is a bit steeper at that point. The rest of the run is a bit south of 6z but more organized. But similar. Secondary low forms a bit further south. Also, noticeable is that eastern Mass gets involved. Seems like the model is increasing its its western precip shield and lifting out possibly a bit west of 6z but not sure. Now, time for the Euro and time to see of the models have reached a consolidated track.

[Blue Ridge]

12Z GFS clown, from Ryan Maue (via Twitter; annotations his): 

Nice little 6" max over Fall Branch. 

Edit: This includes what falls with the first system. 

[Carvers Gap]

12Z GFS clown, from Ryan Maue (via Twitter; annotations his): 

Nice little 6" max over Fall Branch.

Nice info. Fall Branch FTW! Was just looking at the exact map on WxBell. Also, I have seen another snow algorithm (another site, might be AmWx) that has quite a bit more over NE TN. Either way, what a big storm for the MA. You all feel free to post that AmWx clown.

[Carvers Gap]

12z UKMet 1.19.16

(not a fast mover)

 

 

72h

 

 

96h

[Blue Ridge]

12z GEFS members are here: 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47661-jan-22-23-east-coast-storm/?p=3879359

 

Quite a few members either get NE TN in on the real action or are very, very close. 

[Stovepipe]

12z Euro pounding northwest TN.  Totals during storm are already 13+ inches (some of that is from previous storm).  Looks to be south and a bit colder than previous run.

[weathertree4u]

12z Euro pounding northwest TN.  Totals during storm are already 13+ inches (some of that is from previous storm).  Looks to be south and a bit colder than previous run.

Will be interesting to see if the NAM shifts back south, I think it is the only one now with the heaviest banding near the Ohio River; how much of a southern jog was it and could we expect it to continue? Close to 14" IMBY with this run

[Blue Ridge]

burger posted the SV Euro clown in the SE forum. I won't repost, so get it while you can. 

Breakdown:

10-12" TYS

15-18" TRI

6-12" NW TN

[1234snow]

The Euro just came out and I literally just **** my pants. I wish I could post the good maps. Oh my lord.

[Carvers Gap]

I will give someone else the honors of posting the totals..but the Euro starts well south w/ the system in roughly mid-MS.  The primary barely makes it into TN.  Does push a warm nose up the Valley but not like previous runs.  The heaviest snow axis is well south, even in the northeast.  Also, good run for North Carolina.  Big shift.  Going to be interesting to see the ensembles. 

[Stovepipe]

So yeah north-west middle TN got hit hard with 16 inch totals near Paris, 7 inches as far down as Jackson, tight gradient around Nashville that ramps down from about 9 to 3 inches.  Very little in central and southern sections of the eastern valley due to warm nose, then it ramps way up as you get towards TRI.  Looks like 18-23 inches in far NE TN lol. 

 

Edit:  Those amounts include the mid week storm.

[Runman292]

Damn, Knoxville is left out.

[Runman292]

When does the EPS usually come out?

[John1122]

Not seen the run, does it not hit Nashville to Knoxville due to the dying primary? Then hit the NE sections due to the coastal strengthening?

[tnweathernut]

When does the EPS usually come out?

I believe it runs around 3pm est

[tnweathernut]

Not seen the run, does it not hit Nashville to Knoxville due to the dying primary? Then hit the NE sections due to the coastal strengthening?

yes John, kind of looks that way.  The primary, while further south still pulls up quite a bit of WAA.  There is a real dryslot around Knoxville (if you can call around an inch dryslot) with 3 inch amounts just off to your west, most of which falls as rain until you are north and west of Nashville.

[John1122]

yes John, kind of looks that way.  The primary, while further south still pulls up quite a bit of WAA.  There is a real dryslot around Knoxville (if you can call around an inch dryslot) with 3 inch amounts just off to your west, most of which falls as rain until you are north and west of Nashville.

I finally had time to look, the coastal throws some major moisture back to you guys after the primary has croaked. That's a once a decade type snow and shows the benefits of being closer to the coast. The points further west see the mid to high teens about once every 50 years.

[1234snow]

When does the EPS usually come out?

It has just initialized.

[1234snow]

The Euro ensembles generally agree with the operational. It has really good support and the mean snowfall is even a little higher between Knoxville and KTRI. I'll look at individual cities here in a minute. To my eye it looks like KTRI is above a foot on the mean and Knoxville is real close to 6". A few members get the whole valley good.

[dwagner88]

I haven't seen the euro, but what has changed? This thing needed a huge shift to the south to help out everyone except the far NE corner of the state and west TN. Can't have a snow event in the valley if the lpc is in the state. Valley warm noses are extremely hard to scour out. Blizzard of 1996 resulted in only an inch of snow here.

[JayCee]

FROM MRX LONG-TERM DISCO:

 

 

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT TOO BAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT MORE DISAGREEMENT LATE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN NO
MORE THAN AVERAGE LATE. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND IS FORECAST
TO TRACK INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXACT TRACK
STILL NOT CERTAIN...BUT WE SHOULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE SO MAINLY
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WIND
EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE NORMALLY FAVORED HIGHER ELEVATION
AND FOOTHILL AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THIS IN THE HWO. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...CHANGING ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...IT APPEARS WE MAY
HAVE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY...AND A DEFORMATION ZONE
MAY BE OVER THE AREA AS WELL ENHANCING THE SNOW POTENTIAL. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORMALLY FAVORED HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS (ESPECIALLY NORTH AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL). WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL. SHOULD BE
DRY SUNDAY...THEN MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...WITH
THE GFS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL CARRY LOW POPS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING MOSTLY
LIQUID PRECIP AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.

 

[John1122]

I haven't seen the euro, but what has changed? This thing needed a huge shift to the south to help out everyone except the far NE corner of the state and west TN. Can't have a snow event in the valley if the lpc is in the state. Valley warm noses are extremely hard to scour out. Blizzard of 1996 resulted in only an inch of snow here.

 

It was a little south, but the Euro's big change was setting up a pummeling deformation band right over NE Tn/SW Va. At 00z it set that up over the Plateau/Highland rim. Where it sets up, if it does, will ultimately tell the tale on who gets a big dump of snow. The West Tennessee snow is a deformation band on the backside of the initial low before it transfers. 

 

The longer it waits to transfer the better for that type of snow spreading across the state. The faster it does, that dies out and most are stuck with rain until you get further East.

[Carvers Gap]

The biggest difference on the 12z Euro is how far south the primary is compared to other models.  Central MS is a big change.  One of the big things to consider over the next couple of runs is that better data is getting ingested into the wx models because the feature is over NA.  So, one would expect some pretty good corrections during following runs, good or bad.  Trends on operationals matter right now as much as ensemble products if not more.