FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have a feeling now that the models are all aligning that CLT for once might cash in. I refuse to believe 3 inches of sleet. I think this is either going to be one of those crushing ZR events or a big snow event. As usual we are right on the line but could it really sleet for like 10 hours straight, especially under heavy returns? I doubt it. I did during the 96 storm in Wake Forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have a feeling now that the models are all aligning that CLT for once might cash in. I refuse to believe 3 inches of sleet. I think this is either going to be one of those crushing ZR events or a big snow event. As usual we are right on the line but could it really sleet for like 10 hours straight, especially under heavy returns? I doubt it. Could be a snow/sleet mix for a while....would still add up on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I did during the 96 storm in Wake Forest. What does 10+ of sleet look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What does 10+ of sleet look like It was ~6" and it was crazy. There was another storm that hit Raleigh, I think in 87 or so, that dropped 8" of sleet. From all my searches that is one of the highest returns for anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What does 10+ of sleet look like Its strange since the ground is covered but there is nothing in the trees and little on the rooftops. we had an 8 inch sleet storm in the early 80's as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here are the past two runs of the GFS using the Kuchera method to cut out the nonsense. This should be pretty close: 6z And the much improved 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have a feeling now that the models are all aligning that CLT for once might cash in. I refuse to believe 3 inches of sleet. I think this is either going to be one of those crushing ZR events or a big snow event. As usual we are right on the line but could it really sleet for like 10 hours straight, especially under heavy returns? I doubt it. Still trending colder.. could end up being a nearly all snow event NW of I-85. GFS looking more like the GEFS every cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can someone post the snowfall 06z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Even cutting out the "nonsense" seems like "nonsense," especially for the Triad, DC, even CLT! NAM has 2" of liquid equivalent of ZR east of CLT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arandall Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here are the past two runs of the GFS using the Kuchera method to cut out the nonsense. This should be pretty close: 6z And the much improved 12z: Impressive gradient around the Triangle going from ~2" in Raleigh to 6"+ in Orange/Durham county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fwiw ffc has expanded the winter storm warning to include gainesville...1 to 3 inches of snow and 0.25 ice. Cmc would mean a hell of a lot more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Impressive gradient around the Triangle going from ~2" in Raleigh to 6"+ in Orange/Durham county.. Wake always seems to be that way. At least I am close to the pink shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z UKMET looks about the same as last night, except it gets the heavy deformation band down into the N NC Piedmont on Saturday as a victory cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fwiw ffc has expanded the winter storm warning to include gainesville...1 to 3 ices of snow and 0.25 ice. Cmc would mean a hell of a lot more hmmmm...this reminds me of a storm from dec 2005 where it was supposed to be a cold rain and ended up a huge ice storm from gainesville north and east. and the infamous "i hope you get an inch of ice" comment lol not saying that this will be a repeat, but there appear to be some similarities unfolding which could be why they have started expanding the warnings. i have to say usually its snow to ice to rain. having it rain to ice to snow will be interesting to see if it actually pans out. i would really like to see what it looks like to have accumulating snow on top of some ice - should be pretty cool lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fwiw ffc has expanded the winter storm warning to include gainesville...1 to 3 ices of snow and 0.25 ice. Cmc would mean a hell of a lot more CMC maps anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CMC maps anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorticity Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Real Time Nomogram Plots and Partial Thickness Data TREND’s 6 hourly predominant p-type categories include: All snow All snow or snow/sleet mix Icing – measurable sleet with freezing rain Icing – freezing rain mixed with trace frozen Freezing rain or rain Rain Measurable snow with rain Wintry mixtures Changes to or mixing with other p-types are in part determined by noting which predominant p-type category the thickness values are trending toward. When the partial thickness values are located near an adjacent p-type category and are trending toward that adjacent category, forecasters should reflect this trend in their 6 hourly forecast of p-type. Reference material and current observed are here: http://www.weather.gov/rah/nomogram Specific GFS Nomogram Forecasts are here: Use top tabs for common geographical boundary cities. http://www.weather.gov/rah/gfsnomogram Specific NAM Nomogram Forecasts are here: http://www.weather.gov/rah/namnomogram Specific Canadian GEM RUC Forecasts are here: http://www.weather.gov/rah/canadiangemnomogram Specific WRF-ARM Nomogram forecasts are ehre: http://www.weather.gov/rah/wrfarwnomogram Specific RUC Nomogram Forecasts are here: http://www.weather.gov/rah/rucnomogram Data is not available for the ECMWF. Awesome, thanks for links!! I doubt Peachtree city is much help to downtown Atlanta or their north suburbs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Van Denton still thinks Ice Possibilities are high Update on Winter Storm 12noon Thursday 1/21/2016 PLEASE SHARE so this gets to the masses ...thank you. Limited graphic options from home, so I am using these great sources which also match our forecast from last night. 1. Snowfall graphic produced by NWS in Raleigh2. Freezing graphic produced by NWS in Raleigh3. Snowfall graphic produced by WPC via WxBell.com Everything appears to still be on track with snow and some sleet starting late tonight after midnight from the SW reaching the Triad near 4am. A gradual transition to more sleet and some freezing rain will advance from SE to NW during the morning (as a relatively warm layer moves in above the surface near 5000 feet). The areas that stays snow and sleet the longest will be the NW and therefore higher snow totals. Parts of Montgomery and Chatham counties and points south and east have a chance to get to 33 and experience some non-freezing rain by late afternoon or evening. The rest of us should stay at or below freezing leading to significant freezing rain potential. Most of the Piedmont should experience 0.25-0.49" of freezing rain. This alone is enough for some power issues. As you can see from the Ice graphic (this does NOT include sleet..not sure why they call it ICE and not freezing rain)....it shows 0.50 to 0.74" over the southern side of the Triad down into parts of Davidson, most of Randolph, Montgomery and southern Alamance. This area is threatened most by potential power problems. After a mix during the day on Friday, we expect colder air to move back into the 5000 foot level when winds shift at that level as the coastal low forms. This would then change remaining precipitation back to snow. There could still be some freezing drizzle at times when precip is light due to the precip forming in a lower part of the cloud that isn't as cold. The chance for snow showers will continue into Saturday with more in the north. I would expect 1-2 inches to be the average from these showers (less south where it should be patchy). Sunday will be dry and good weather at the Panther game. However, Charlotte is probably going to have major ice problems and there may be some lingering issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can't recall I've ever seen all rain in Asheville and gone down the mountain to all snow. I've seen freezing rain and sleet in the French Broad River Valley, and gone down the mountain to snow, but never as drastic as you listed. Banter,mods you can delete. It happened last year got 3.5 inches while Asheville got rain/snow mix with no accumulation. I don't believe it was possible either, but it happened. So I guess we can agree to disagree, an move on. Good luck to you and everyone else I think Mtns/foothills are in for a good storm. Hopefully temps aloft can keep us all snow. Looking forward to realcasting an obs. God bless and be safe everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 hmmmm...this reminds me of a storm from dec 2005 where it was supposed to be a cold rain and ended up a huge ice storm from gainesville north and east. and the infamous "i hope you get an inch of ice" comment lol not saying that this will be a repeat, but there appear to be some similarities unfolding which could be why they have started expanding the warnings. i have to say usually its snow to ice to rain. having it rain to ice to snow will be interesting to see if it actually pans out. i would really like to see what it looks like to have accumulating snow on top of some ice - should be pretty cool lol I remember that fiasco. A lot of mets out of the region only saw a departing high and didn't bet one lick on the in-situ wedging locking down with incredibly initial dry Dewpoints. While many heated debates raged on, the SE crowd and mets alike immediately jumped on the wedge locking despite it in-situ and diabatically enhanced, despite a retreating HP. Nightmare event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Closer look at the 12Z GFS soundings for KFQD shows: 1.42" falls as snow .46" falls as IP .08 falls as RN Best GFS sounding BY FAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Models have came to a consensus and GFS is still in la la land. CMC: GFS: NAM: UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like heavy snow at GSP. ! FYI, I just asked GSP NWS about the high today. They say the high temp today won't matter much since cold air will get reinforced from the north early Friday. They have increased both their forecasted ice totals and snow totals for upstate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 New Video Update From Brad P. On His Way Back From Colorado to CLT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPkjNVT1Sx0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can someone post the snowfall 06z GEFS? 6Z or 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow, thanks Grit. That would be outstanding! I'll take 9 hours of snow on Friday and run. Great temps too! Seems like the GFS and RGEM have been trending more snow/sleet for 85 north. The Saturday stuff is precarious imo, I don't think we get much once the low is off the coast to our east. EDIT: Man, the cmc looks awesome too 85 north.let's keep this look please!! Yeah, that was strictly from the model. Probably have to move up the changeover time from snow to sleet a few hours knowing that warm noses tend to overperform. We don't normally get any of the backside snow, but this is a special case with the strong, closed upper low passing overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tweet of Nam and gfs Check out @wxcrum's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxcrum/status/690224548877328384?s=15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just a note on soil temperatures. Soil temperatures are very cold right now, much colder than we usually see in the South with winter storms. You can see soil temps in the 30-35 degree range in the NW third of NC with 35-40 degree soil temps for the majority of the remainder of places that are likely going to be in for wintry precip. I'd expect the snow to stick quickly, even to the roads. I don't think it's a big deal given the intensity of this storm, but it never hurts. Sounds like KCLT has basically been shut down for tomorrow. http://greencastonline.com/tools/gisFull.asp?maps=NationalToday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Atlanta NWS will be issuing a new watch. Was in on the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What in the world is wrong with the SREF? For RDU, some members have temps in the 40s near 50. I guess we can throw that out? I think its a hunk of junk. Has ridiculous spread at short lead times. Somehow its qpf mean usually comes out pretty good which is the only think I really use it for. Thats just my opinion, I could be wrong. Something is wrong with teh 9z SREF, there's no precip falling on the soundings at RDU throughout the run. What the? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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