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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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This is valid 21Z Friday.  At that point, the warm conveyor belt of precip should be over and there should be a good lull in the precipitation until the deform band comes back through overnight into Saturday morning.  That is to say, 21Z sounding supports sleet but it should not be precipitating at that time.

 

I saw that but the NAM has the temp going above freezing at that level at about 15Z- I think there will be sleet, for how long is the question. A foot of snow seems quite likely if you add the front end to the def band at the end- but will there a few hours of sleet to keep if from getting up more towards 15-16"

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GFS gets the system organized faster off the east coast and helps to keep the 850's cool.  Seems a little more east of last run and a tick stronger.

yea slp is a tick east, a little colder.  rdu starts as snow and at 33 or so switches to ice and maybe rain, then back to snow as the low move n. 

 

hr 30 not a bad look.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_5.png

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I saw that but the NAM has the temp going above freezing at that level at about 15Z- I think there will be sleet, for how long is the question. A foot of snow seems quite likely if you add the front end to the def band at the end- but will there a few hours of sleet to keep if from getting up more towards 15-16"

 

Well, this may be a moot point- the GFS has no warm nose at all, the entire sounding stays well below freezing the whole storm. So a near record in AVL of 16-18" is possible!

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