weatherheels Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM seemed to have a money track and transfer for the Triad. Seems like we'd stay below freezing throughout with that track. Man NOVA is going to get obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's so close. The maps look to keep RDU at or below freezing for the whole event; but these are maps.. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_039_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160121+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Yeah, it's super close for sure. Either way, it's going to be a significant winter event. The NAM did seem to bring the initial precip in quicker than the overnigh runs and that's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Man, if only this was all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1.75 QPF for KDAN.. It's so close to being all snow but IP tries to mix in at times during the heaviest precip. NAM definitely trending better from 00Z run Should be interesting for us in Southside VA. I've noticed though that some locals have lowered our totals from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM has easterly winds for a few hours Friday morning across central NC. This is messing up the CAD flow and is the reason why area's to the south don't get below freezing, (upstate SC, and N.E. Georgia). Is it believable, I dunno?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 National Weather Service updated SNOWFALL Forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Para euro looks similar to the regular euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Man, if only this was all snow. That is much more for our area than before -- obviously not all snow, but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM has easterly winds for a few hours Friday morning across central NC. This is messing up the CAD flow and is the reason why area's to the south don't get below freezing, (upstate SC, and N.E. Georgia). Is it believable, I dunno?? VERY good points...and that little change can train wreck a forecast...I wish the GFS would pick up more on wedge..lets see what the doc has to say as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I pray it's not this... that was my analog for this system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We'd need to keep the surface low from making landfall--it needs to stay offshore if we want to keep the easterly winds at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM has easterly winds for a few hours Friday morning across central NC. This is messing up the CAD flow and is the reason why area's to the south don't get below freezing, (upstate SC, and N.E. Georgia). Is it believable, I dunno?? With a 995 surface low over the sound it isn't just possible it's likely and what is worse is its gonna be warm air.....it's the elephant in the room for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM has easterly winds for a few hours Friday morning across central NC. This is messing up the CAD flow and is the reason why area's to the south don't get below freezing, (upstate SC, and N.E. Georgia). Is it believable, I dunno?? Ooooh this is a d*** good point. I was just having a discussion about this very thing with a family member! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That is much more for our area than before -- obviously not all snow, but still.... I was going to say the same thing. Totals keep going up. I think the runs have been looking better since the Euro overnight, though, and we could get more snow than forecasted locally. Hope the track will stay off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Man, if only this was all snow. Looks like from Asheville west it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Should be interesting for us in Southside VA. I've noticed though that some locals have lowered our totals from yesterday Mostly due to mixing, this is my first big storm here so i'm not sure how local climo usually works here, but I would be surprised if we don't get 8 inches of snow looking at a blend of all models.. our lowest total now is around a foot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Probably late to the party, 12z Nam was much improved from 06z for RDU. Heavy snow at onset followed by ZR throughout entire run it appears. Will look at soundings soon. If anyone has fast sounding links besides PSU I'd be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z RGEM looks amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Back to 16" in AVL, I think some of that will be sleet but this is looking epic again. Glad to see the NAM come on board. We leave in a few hours......also the NAM has a 48.5" total in extreme northern VA/WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 as usual, ne ga and the upstate are pretty much riding the liquid/frozen ice/snow line lol. i should be used to it. amazing how close it can be and just one or two degrees either way making all the difference. not sure if i have seen them do this, but gsp is having a q/a session on the storm today lol https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201601211345-KGSP-NOUS42-PNSGSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like from Asheville west it could be. Using the Kuchera equation, Ashdeville will get 5" ± 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM has heavy snow at the beginning, changes to sleet for a lot of the Piedmont and southern foothills then another round of heavy snow on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM has heavy snow at the beginning, changes to sleet for a lot of the Piedmont and southern foothills then another round of heavy snow on Saturday. link or images? I dont know where to get it this fast. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z RGEM looks amazing Where are you seeing the 12Z run so early? Not updated on Pivotal or the CMC page..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Probably late to the party, 12z Nam was much improved from 06z for RDU. Heavy snow at onset followed by ZR throughout entire run it appears. Will look at soundings soon. If anyone has fast sounding links besides PSU I'd be interested. Think triangle stays all frozen . Trend since euro last night. Lets see if the Nam can keep the coastal low east of the obx in latter runs. if we can get it to follow euro on that last lap then we all should be able to increase accums and see more sleet during that 9 hour window in the middle as oppossed to frzng rain. Tell you some one is gonna get raked with freezing rain/wind. the euro last night puts it from eastern upstate into midlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Where are you seeing the 12Z run so early? Not updated on Pivotal or the CMC page..... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z RGEM looks amazing Edit.....I was looking at the 6Z crushes the upstate. Almost 1.8 inches of liquid equivalent falls into mid to upper 20's surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derived42 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 crushes the upstate. Almost 1.8 inches of liquid equivalent falls into mid to upper 20's surface temps. Trying to pay attention to all that's going on and learn. Can you elaborate on what exactly you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aturner79 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thats the 6z RGEM isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Using the Kuchera equation, Ashdeville will get 5" ± 1". The below in Pivotal's map using Kuchera- how do you arrive at 5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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