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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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It will come down to the strength of the CAD and the position of the low off our coast. Even with us only 24 hours from the start of the storm, the next models runs are very crucial.

 

The problem is the storm digs to much and even though on most models the new low forms on the GA/SC border they all move it NNE instead of NE and hug the coastline.....this is no good, when the lows are that strong and that close the WAA is stronger and faster than modeled every time. I guess however if it digs hard enough it can pull the colder air in closer to the west side. Good luck you Triangle folks are gonna need it if the models have the track right.... 

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Think if the Nam will get it together with all the rest of guidance today, everyone in met world will feel more comfortable beefing up totals. Good to see gFS fall in line with euro on the finer details (transition lines, times). But like wow said as long as the Nam keeps holding the primary longer and super amplifying, it will continue to put out the same picture at the mid levels.

 

Last night euro run was worth the lost sleep; Absoloute best and at 24 hours out instead of 7 days; Anyway tommorrow will be the 3rd time in five days alot of us have seen snow fall. 

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I don't think anyone south of Roanoke is safe from sleet. Even as the EURO continue to dump 20-30" up here and the GFS 14"+...NAM really seems to want to give everyone sleet/ice.

I don't think Roanoke is safe. Hour 45 at 775mb 0.0  Warm nose is often stronger than modeled so I am expecting some sleet.  This is 1 degree colder than 00z last night so maybe it will trend colder.

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I do wish all models would come around to the more southerly solution, the 03Z SREF is disconcerting as well. I always get nervous until all are on board. My pessimistic nature setting in.

I am with you... I am just catching up on all the threads / models... realizing I wish I lived in Boone or Hickory instead of Holly Springs... 

The latest models show us getting a lot of rain (which we don't need) and very little frozen stuff... 

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Backside Band on the GFS is looking stout for the upstate. I woudn't be surpised if localized area's in North Georgia or Upstate SC get 5 or 6 inches of snow late Friday night from this.

Yes sir!  I think the models, and the NWS offices are under-estimating that RH fields, the cold punch at 5k...etc....That will be very fun to watch...Get ready sir, y'all are gonna get hit hard with ICE IMHO

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liquid eq. not sure if it is wonky with temps but it has been showing really low liq eq for rdu and this run it finally showed a lot more initial snow.

No kidding! Hopefully this verifies, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see. I'm interested to see how the 12z models trend, despite the storm being so close. Like FallsLake said, just a degree or two colder would change that rain over to snow.

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I am with you... I am just catching up on all the threads / models... realizing I wish I lived in Boone or Hickory instead of Holly Springs... 

The latest models show us getting a lot of rain (which we don't need) and very little frozen stuff... 

 

Of course Boone would be great but.....I am liking the trends for that deformation band to move across our area with 12:1 ratios. I would not be surprised to see a lot of folks in N GA getting a couple of inches and much more in the far NE corner of the state.

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SREF is actually more south of the last run. 

 

21z

 

 

 

3z

 

 

SREF is definitely still figuring things out, it's probabilities were useless as the s/w stayed positive and never even went neutral yesterday...lol

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I don't think Roanoke is safe. Hour 45 at 775mb 0.0  Warm nose is often stronger than modeled so I am expecting some sleet.  This is 1 degree colder than 00z last night so maybe it will trend colder.

 

 

It's anecdotal local climo that the sleet/snow line will establish roughly from the NW corner of Henry County to the SW corner.

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