SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't want to hear ANY models shifting north, but if one had to do it I guess the NAVGEM is the best to shift up a bit. Very curious though what the UKIE is doing today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Major 12z model runs so far for the Winston-Salem area: GFS 13" with 1.4" total precip, NAM 13" with 1.6" total precip, and Canadian 8" with 1.5" total precip. Looks like the models are settling in on 1.5" liquid equivalent for triad area with less of a mixing issue than previous model runs. Hopefully the Euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 And guys remember every storm this winter has over performed on totals. This will be something to keep an eye on especially in the icy spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 typically you would want to cut back on the qpf output the models are showing by half or so but the tendency this fall and winter has been for the models to underestimate the totals so it may not be so crazy to believe the qpf output this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone mention the 12z GEFS? Looks awesome as far as low track. More suppressed with the transfer and most Lowe's are off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone mention the 12z GEFS? Looks awesome as far as low track. More suppressed with the transfer and most Lowe's are off the coast. I mentioned it above. I agree, it did look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good stuff, Jon. Great time for the UKMET to not be loading up. SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS pretty much seals it for me. GFS is def. on the crack. Hard to take it too seriously. I know many will laugh at me for even saying that but I was still concerned because it wasn't wavering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 96 hour snow for 12z GEFS. Nice beef up over NC for sure. This of course is snow+ice so keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone mention the 12z GEFS? Looks awesome as far as low track. More suppressed with the transfer and most Lowe's are off the coast. Thanks for posting this Jon! That is encouraging for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone mention the 12z GEFS? Looks awesome as far as low track. More suppressed with the transfer and most Lowe's are off the coast. The average of those lows would be a good hit for the RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I expect more mixing than what is shown on models for our neck of the woods. Yep, I agree. Models will continue to bounce around, but just based on past storms -- WS/GSO/HP tend to be in the sleet storm area. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Individual members on GEFS are very interesting. Most have the primary low staying low, with little northward movement, and thus keeping the midlevels cold enough. Then transfers the low to the SC coast. Hybrid A/B storm. Several keep the snow line near I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hey can I ask a met or someone like Wow or Burg a question? For my latitude I'm curious when am I looking for the secondary low to explode in order to give me the maximum amount of snow I can get out the system, via the deformation or CCB? I'm curious when I go to look Friday where I want to see the secondary start exploding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes, good read. I now understand why the Moderators like to keep the IMBY questions off the technical sites. Being sandwiched between the MA and SE we don't get much commentary about our region along the central border (VA/NC) -- out here in-between-land, the models appear pretty consistent that we are snow (4 - 6"), sleet (?") and zr (<.05"). Below US 158 and east of US 15 looks wetter, with a change to rain. North of US 58 and west of US 321 = all snow (12"). Any souls out there who know our region -- agree? That sounds about right to me. I'm a good bit further east than you are, but north of most of NC. We tend to be more similar to Norfolk weather (without the direct maritime issues) than to RDU for example. I expect more mixing here, but still looks like a pretty good hit. Could stay in the coma head longer than most and that would help with the totals here in northeastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 When do you guys think Winter Storm Warnings/Watches or ICE Storm Warnings will be Issued by GSP? No later than tomorrow morning. I would guess to venture with all the available data that has been available this morning that it is becoming more and more likely they would feel comfortable pulling the trigger due to the severity of a possible ice storm for a bunch of folks. Tomorrow morning would probably be pushing it so it may be with the afternoon package or possibly later tonight. I wouldn't be surprised if the afternoon package isn't delayed due to NWS collaboration with other offices and a review of the 18z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thanks for posting this Jon! That is encouraging for sure!No problem. I see Allan has posted the snowfall mean, definitely went up which I thought it would. Good trends for Wake Co and central NC as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Don't lose hope, the Euro ensembles last night gave you some snow..... thanks - although sometimes in ga its hard to keep the hope alive since we get screwed so many different ways lol. fortunately i like all winter wx so anything frozen is great, snow is a bonus yeah he might just get lucky... the 12z canadian has such a dynamical system it goes over to snow for the northeast corner by 12z friday. some impressive wedging on the east side of the mountains for sure. thats a close call to be sure. i remember a couple of times maps like that, only to have it miss mby by 15-20 miles although i am certainly liking how things are looking now, at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 12z JMA looks like a drubbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Supplemental soundings starting today at 18Z/06Z. Central Region: Entire Region starting 18 UTC 20 Jan - 06Z 22 Jan. Southern Region: From Texas eastward starting 18 UTC 21 Jan - 18 UTC 22 Jan. Eastern Region: RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH Starting 18z 21 Jan - 06z Jan 23. From a met on the mid Atlantic forum. This is getting exciting when they do special launches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lets try our best not to bash the NWS discussions/advisories/warnings/other products around 3-4PM today. It's easier to play conservative and add to the text than to over-hype it. And to the new guys, you can post over in banter if you have questions for your area located here. The Euro model will be coming out soon. I personally think it has to stay where it was or slightly North. We are in that window of the "North trend". Transfer off the CHS-Myrtle Beach area seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 12z JMA looks like a drubbing. I know we GA folks would take that all day and then some... obviously the SC and NC people would too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z GEFS individual members... big hits across the board. No misses for most of NC/TN/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Every model is showing a sick deformation band/ comma head! Whomever is under this, will score big time ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro running...out to 15...trough might be a hair sharper and further west. Probably won't be around for the duration of this run as I have dinner to go to so take it away boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 The GEFS member snow maps are glorious. Here's one of several that look like this (note: this is snow+ice): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 @24 the northern energy is a tick south of 00z...again looks a tad sharper. No big changes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro to 36, a tad less deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hurricane hunters doing a dropsonde mission for this storm. Now that is impressive!! The amount of data we are going to have available hopefully any minor flaws in the models will be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Via Brad P, this shows the (small) changes in GFS tracks: Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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