LovingGulfLows Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Deformation band decimates N. MS....sadly the low pressure treked Northeast so GA pretty much gets dry slotted...really need the 500 mb to trend farther south and go more eastward....I can easily see Atlanta area and north getting 4-6 inches from the comma head snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The quicker that primary dies out, the faster the precip will rotate into our area and form the comma head on the coastal low. That's our big snow maker. It's initial snow, then a mix, then back to snow. Step 3 is still hard to pinpoint until we know exactly when and where the secondary bombs out and the primary dies out. This is setting up so much like 96 its crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is setting up so much like 96 its crazy. Such a fantastic run for Western NC. By the way, glad to have you up her in the Catawba Valley. I appreciate your dedicated discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 who's gonna be the first to post their predicted snow/ice/sleet maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 it's interesting to note the 06z 4km nam continues to show sub freezing temps making down the spine of the mountains to near gainesville/dawsonville by 09z to 12z friday. if you went by dewpoints, even further south and sooner. I'm feeling like at the least there is going to be a narrow area of major icing from dawson, hall, lumpkin, white, hambersham, rabun counties...especially so for areas around the 1500 to 2000 foot level..which is usually the sweet spot of coldest temps. Makes me wonder what a euro solution would spell for these areas since the nam is further north. i haven't been paying a lot of attention to this storm after it appeared n ga was in the screw zone. however, it has my attention now - as cold as it has been if we can get some good ne winds to keep the temps down there could be some decent icing here. we havent had any big cad events for a while and this one is looking like we may get one. this looks like the type of storm that is great for the classic ne ga cad areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12nam sounding continue to cool the 850 level. Down to 1.9 at hr 54 and 1.0 at hr 60. Total qpf of 1.17" during that time period. Then the 850 drop greatly at Hr 66 to -5.0 Looks like back to snow by 10PM on Friday? I havent seen a sounding so I cant confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Such a fantastic run for Western NC. By the way, glad to have you up her in the Catawba Valley. I appreciate your dedicated discussion. Thanks man, glad to be up here. I was telling my girlfriend how jealous I've been for YEARS of you guys. I hope we cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 SREF Mean Is Now Up To 5.30 inches for Hickory. Up from 4.05 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This run is a pretty big ice storm for prime cad areas from dawsonville/gainesville to clayton...especially any areas at or above 1500 feet. In fact, i fear it's a crippling one as it brings 2 or 3 inch liquid. Check out 925mb temps..sub freezing mostly during the entire storm over the northeast corner. Pretty bad stuff in those areas. Of course the million dollar question is does it continue to expand south from here. I don't think this is anything but rain for atlanta and athens but from dawson county/hall county northeast are certainly starting to be at risk. Dude, you and I both know how it never fails, when the CAD is modeled like it currently is, the models never handle the low level temps. This has trouble written all over it if the trend continues. I will go out on a limb and say that Athens, Winder, Dacula, Lawrenceville would all be in on the act. Also, any more movement south and I would almost guarantee it. Verbatim, no, but the CAD always out performs the modeling of that signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Such a fantastic run for Western NC. By the way, glad to have you up her in the Catawba Valley. I appreciate your dedicated discussion. That looks like the 96 storm; which had a sleet feast for the RDU area. Great look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 9.51.51 AM.png Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 9.50.39 AM.png Oh man, that hurts for CLT and GSP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 When you see MOS spitting out big numbers, thats a big sign because it's so heavily weighted towards climo. If you dont know how to read it, use this link and it should explain it well enough: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/namcard.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Interesting to look at meteograms for CLT and Shelby for the 12z NAM vs. 6z -- actually warmed up at the surface (although it didn't look like it on the maps). I assume this is because of the NAM's more substantial WAA on the 12z run??? CLT is actually above freezing at 2m for the first HALF of the precip. Similar case in Shelby. Obviously the good news is the backside thump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Verbatim it looked like RDU warmed well above freezing late Friday as some of the heaviest returns are overhead. But otherwise that was a good run for winter weather lovers in the RDU area. I hope the defr band holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This run is a pretty big ice storm for prime cad areas from dawsonville/gainesville to clayton...especially any areas at or above 1500 feet. In fact, i fear it's a crippling one as it brings 2 or 3 inch liquid. Check out 925mb temps..sub freezing mostly during the entire storm over the northeast corner. Pretty bad stuff in those areas. Of course the million dollar question is does it continue to expand south from here. I don't think this is anything but rain for atlanta and athens but from dawson county/hall county northeast are certainly starting to be at risk. I agree Lookout... Im not sure that the cad sig will not shift a little to the southeast to catch more the anderson/hartwell/ to gainesville. This reasoning is all based off history here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 9.51.51 AM.png Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 9.50.39 AM.png Man, that would be catastrophic for Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Oh man, that hurts for CLT and GSP... Crazy, 1.13" if fzr for CLT? if that verified. then have any snow fall on top of that would paralyze the metro. Not good for the Panther's game on Sunday if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Interesting to look at meteograms for CLT and Shelby for the 12z NAM vs. 6z -- actually warmed up at the surface (although it didn't look like it on the maps). I assume this is because of the NAM's more substantial WAA on the 12z run??? CLT is actually above freezing at 2m for the first HALF of the precip. Similar case in Shelby. Obviously the good news is the backside thump of snow. I dont buy that skip, especially if we start off as snow and bottom out around 28 or 29 and this not being an in-situ CAD. Maybe further east but not in the immediate metro from Charlotte to Shelby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Verbatim it looked like RDU warmed well above freezing late Friday as some of the heaviest returns are overhead. But otherwise that was a good run for winter weather lovers in the RDU area. I hope the defr band holds. These are tricky setups. I bet if this particular run verified the CAD temps would hold stronger and we would stay below freezing for the entire event. I'm going off past storm experiences and the point that the 850 zero line is never far from our location. On the flip side, we do need to keep an eye on where the low transfers. If it does run inland then I would say a change to rain is probable. Stays off the coast and we stay below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Such a fantastic run for Western NC. By the way, glad to have you up her in the Catawba Valley. I appreciate your dedicated discussion. Calc is this all snow clown or does it get diluted with ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Oh man, that hurts for CLT and GSP... That has me JUST outside of this ice storm, but I have to believe that if GSP gets that much, I will see at least half of that here too if not more. IF this verifies and comes south 20-25 miles Duke Power would probably set an all time record for the number of people without power. As big as some of our ice storms have been on the I-85 corridor, I can't remember one with quite this much ice in the CLT and GSP metros. 2002 had more in spots, but not in the immediate metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ture. However, soundings show the 850 continue to cool more so during the middle of the system. Sightly but cooler nonetheless. Interesting to look at meteograms for CLT and Shelby for the 12z NAM vs. 6z -- actually warmed up at the surface (although it didn't look like it on the maps). I assume this is because of the NAM's more substantial WAA on the 12z run??? CLT is actually above freezing at 2m for the first HALF of the precip. Similar case in Shelby. Obviously the good news is the backside thump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Oh man, that hurts for CLT and GSP... 1.26 for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RGEM deeper than the NAM at 48 hours, 500mb low over Jackson, MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That nam has 1.25 freezing rain or sleet charlotte. Lord I hope that's sleet and not frzng rain. Soundings will tell in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Calc is this all snow clown or does it get diluted with ice That looks like it includes ice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wouldn't think so either, but a little disconcerting that the usually CAD-savvy NAM is cutting it so close. Man, really rooting for y'all down here -- love that you are in a "friendlier" spot for winter weather. I dont buy that skip, especially if we start off as snow and bottom out around 28 or 29 and this not being an in-situ CAD. Maybe further east but not in the immediate metro from Charlotte to Shelby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 EPS mean for W-S is now over 16 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think this NAM run is too warm/far north based on last night's Euro ensemble and this AM's RGEM. So no point really in getting too much into details. This afternoon's Euro and GFS will hopefully still be more south..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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