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January 22-23 Storm Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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HRRR and RAP are both obscene. 1-2"+/hr continuous thru their runs for SEPA starting around 6z-ish. HRRR (23z) gets heaviest around 17Z tomorrow which is end of its run and the deformation band is just starting to pivot at that time. Neither model is quite as far N with the heavy snow axis as the NAM.

Radar looks like its gonna start puking by 1am?

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Make that a 4-4.5" QPF max in the Lehigh Valley 

 

I need a beer now

That would make up for all the events I've watched from the sidelines in the last 5-10 years, particularly Boxing Day. I swear, I was able to watch a wall of snow falling about 2 miles to the east of me.

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That would make up for all the events I've watched from the sidelines in the last 5-10 years, particularly Boxing Day. I swear, I was able to watch a wall of snow falling about 2 miles to the east of me.

Boxing day was bad here too of course, I still want the payback for 2/6/2010 and Feb 2013

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heyo

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0057.html

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1108 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA...CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ...AND   THE NYC METRO   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 230508Z - 231015Z   SUMMARY...MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT   NORTHWARD...IMPACTING EASTERN PA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL NJ...NYC...AND   WESTERN LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MORNING. RATES UP   TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.   DISCUSSION...AS AN 850-700 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN EAST   TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING   ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH DEFORMATION ALOFT TO SPREAD   MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE AREA. SNOW   HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...BUT GENERALLY   HAS REMAINED LIGHT/MODERATE IN INTENSITY. NONETHELESS...THE KDOX VWP   EXHIBITS A LARGE/CYCLONICALLY LOOPED HODOGRAPH...INDICATING STRONG   WARM-AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE APPROXIMATE 1-4 KM LAYER TO THE SOUTH   OF THE REGION. MOREOVER...SFC OBS ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ SHOW PRESSURE   FALLS AROUND 2-2.5 MB/HR...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING   WARM-AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THUS...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FURTHER   STRENGTHENS AND 850-700 MB FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION   AREA...IMPROVED ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION PROCESSES WILL FAVOR   SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT...MOST   LIKELY AROUND 07-10Z.
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