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January 22-23 Storm Threat

Ralph Wiggum

By Ralph Wiggum,
in Philadelphia Region

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Bluescat1

Bluescat1

Posted
Posted

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...
BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, THE SNOW LOOKS TO COME IN FASTER. THE WORDING IN THE
WINTER HEADLINES WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF THE SNOW. A SPS WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTH OF PHILLY AS WE ARE
PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH THE SNOW STARTING DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. ONCE THE SNOW STARTS, IT WON`T TAKE
LONG FOR IT TO BECOME MODERATE TO EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY IN INTENSITY.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RATES TO APPROACH 1"/HR IN THE DELMARVA
AND SOUTHERN-MOST PART OF NJ AT THE TAIL END OF RUSH HOUR.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENT SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON AFTER MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE COMES
IN. WE`LL STILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR THAT TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM SHIFTS. WE`LL ALSO TRY TO
PINPOINT THE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MESOSCALE SNOW
BANDING THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NOT TOO FAR NORTH
OF THE RAIN/SLEET-SNOW LINE. WE WOULD INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT, DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS
MESOSCALE FEATURE IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO
SEE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3" PER HOUR AND PERHAPS THUNDERSNOW
UNDERNEATH THIS BAND. LOOKING AT THE 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT,
THIS BAND COULD SET UP ROUGHLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE EASTERN SHOWER
OF MD- C DE TO AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF PHILLY/
CENTRAL NJ.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

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shemATC

shemATC

Posted
Posted

I'd give my left arm for that GFS snow map (that 30" looks over lower bucks).  I don't use my left all that often, and it would get me out of shoveling.

I'd say we don't tempt the mods and when we create a obs topic for this storm we try to limit the banter.  We're all overjoyed at the moment, but lets try to keep the scientific obs and the "Holy hell that's a lot of snow" separate once the main event starts.

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Violentweatherfan

Violentweatherfan

Posted
Posted

I'd give my left arm for that GFS snow map (that 30" looks over lower bucks). I don't use my left all that often, and it would get me out of shoveling.

I'd say we don't tempt the mods and when we create a obs topic for this storm we try to limit the banter. We're all overjoyed at the moment, but lets try to keep the scientific obs and the "Holy hell that's a lot of snow" separate once the main event starts.

This is all my fault I traded the next five winters away for this event blame me fellas

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

AFD talks about wet low ratio snow.  I would say perhaps for some of the storm, but not for the front end thump and not for the deformation.  You would think deformation bands could get 15:1.

 

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SNOW WILL BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY/WET
WITH THIS EVENT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS A DEEP RIMING LAYER. THIS
HAS TO BE FACTORED INTO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM A SOCIETAL
PERSPECTIVE AND SNOW RATIOS FROM A FORECAST PERSPECTIVE. POWER
OUTAGES COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM WHERE THERE
ARE BLIZZARD WARNINGS DUE TO THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY, EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST
(WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS RESIDE ON SATURDAY) EVEN IF THEY SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN. WE`LL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS A TAD SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT ONE. WITH REGARDS TO SNOW
RATIOS, THEY WILL BE LESS THAN THE TYPICAL 10:1 DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE EVENT DUE TO THE RIMING FACTOR AND POTENTIAL FOR MIXING.

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hazwoper

hazwoper

Posted
Posted

AFD talks about wet low ratio snow.  I would say perhaps for some of the storm, but not for the front end thump and not for the deformation.  You would think deformation bands could get 15:1.

 

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SNOW WILL BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY/WET

WITH THIS EVENT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS A DEEP RIMING LAYER. THIS

HAS TO BE FACTORED INTO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM A SOCIETAL

PERSPECTIVE AND SNOW RATIOS FROM A FORECAST PERSPECTIVE. POWER

OUTAGES COULD BE EXTENSIVE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM WHERE THERE

ARE BLIZZARD WARNINGS DUE TO THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY, EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST

(WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS RESIDE ON SATURDAY) EVEN IF THEY SWITCH

OVER TO RAIN. WE`LL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD

WARNINGS A TAD SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT ONE. WITH REGARDS TO SNOW

RATIOS, THEY WILL BE LESS THAN THE TYPICAL 10:1 DURING THE MIDDLE

OF THE EVENT DUE TO THE RIMING FACTOR AND POTENTIAL FOR MIXING.

well, it does say "during the middle of the event"

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