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January 22-23 Storm Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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This is a good run for our area, i don't care about the QPF we know the NAM is overdoing it with the north track, but maybe at least it is sniffing a trend North. I won't sweat dryslots on the NAM at this stage.

 

Give me a compromise of the northern hi-res models with the southern globals and I think PHL is in good shape.

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If you compare the 12Z NAM with the 18Z NAM,   the closed 500mb low is at least 100 miles further north at 18Z.   I believe that was a big part of the difference which allowed this run to push that razor edge cutoff north.    Will be interesting to watch the 18Z GFS at 500mb to see if this it the start of something.

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