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January 22-23 Storm Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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Now that we are getting closer in time frame it looks that DC will really get a wallop.  I personally witnessed the entire city shut down for about 4-5 days to deal with 10 inches of snow.  2'+ would cripple them for who knows how long.  The way they handle snow there you'd think they were in Georgia or Louisiana. 

To hear reports, they were just about crippled by light snow last night.

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GGEM is not South. It is now very much inline with other guidance. It adjusted the qpf field by tightening it but H5 and slp position suggest if anything, it ticked north with those features. The models are actually converging rather nicely on a solution.

 

It doesn't matter. The cut off from the confluence knocks down the percip like a brick wall. It can only reach so far. Ideally, for a more northen solution, you'd want this thing to slow down, and allow that H and confluence to get out of the way as much as possible. But thats looking less and less likely.

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GGEM is not South. It is now very much inline with other guidance. It adjusted the qpf field by tightening it but H5 and slp position suggest if anything, it ticked north with those features. The models are actually converging rather nicely on a solution.

 

It also has what appears to be a weak CCB...

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GGEM is not South. It is now very much inline with other guidance. It adjusted the qpf field by tightening it but H5 and slp position suggest if anything, it ticked north with those features. The models are actually converging rather nicely on a solution.

It's either south or extremely condensed.  0z GGEM gave just north of philly 20+ inches.  Now it gives 11, and the cut off dropped from Easton down to Doylestown.

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It's either south or extremely condensed. 0z GGEM gave just north of philly 20+ inches. Now it gives 11, and the cut off dropped from Easton down to Doylestown.

Slp track is very close. I think the qpf consolidated and shifted due to the ggem missing the capture....barely. I think its merely noise but I could be wrong.
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