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January 22-23 Storm Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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TWC needs to use the MST3K names from Space Mutiny - I'd get on board with Storm Big McLargeHuge. Anyway, nontropical storms are best named after the fact, when their full impact is known, or simply by a descriptor and year since the impact is made memorable, e.g. March 93 Superstorm, Ash Wednesday Storm of 62, Blizzard of 96, etc. Tropical storms have a defined set of criteria that warrant a name even if the only thing they ever impact are shipping interests.

In conclusion, TWC trying to name storms is like trying to make fetch happen. It's not going to happen.

https://www.facebook.com/StopWeatherChannelFromNamingWinterStorms/photos_stream?ref=page_internal

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In regards to the intermittent looking blobs of high qpf and subsidence on the GFS and CMC, I believe this is in response to the strong dynamics specifically 700mb vv's and frontogenic lifting features. I liken this to summer thunderstorms/instability. Bands of very heavy precipitation will likely setup at times with zones of subsidence on either side of said banding features. Yes, there probably will be some thunder accompanying these meso-scale bands of heavy precip. Very dynamic situation setting up and nobody should be concerned about the choppy looking qpf features on some of the models. Clearly a response to convective activity.

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In regards to the intermittent looking blobs of high qpf and subsidence on the GFS and CMC, I believe this is in response to the strong dynamics specifically 700mb vv's and frontogenic lifting features. I liken this to summer thunderstorms/instability. Bands of very heavy precipitation will likely setup at times with zones of subsidence on either side of said banding features. Yes, there probably will be some thunder accompanying these meso-scale bands of heavy precip. Very dynamic situation setting up and nobody should be concerned about the choppy looking qpf features on some of the models. Clearly a response to convective activity.

 

 

The Par GFS wis really wrapped up, Philly would get snow but then over to a ton of sleet probably

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How reliable is this para GFS? I honestly dont follow it nor do I know its verification statistics.

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I believe it is lagging it's predecessor the current GFS. Here is the thing with it and the Euro IMO.  Especially with these dynamic storms.  They have higher resolution like the short range meso models so sometimes in the medium range I feel like they can tend to over-amp things and I think that the 0Z Euro is a perfect example of that.  If you remember last year the blizzard that wasn't?  Every model except a few runs of the Euro showed the storm OTS and the Euro showed it hugging the coast b/c it over-amplified the system.  The PARA GFS I believe has the same resolution as the Euro currently does and is doing the same thing.  

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Wasnt going to post on the NAM but generally unchanged thru 48hrs. Only notable difference is the precip shield is considerably more expansive. Not really too interested in what it shows post 48hrs to be honest. Not saying I wont peek tho :-)

hour 54 precip shield noticeably further north than 6z. putting a hole in the 00z euro's slow solution..

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Wasnt going to post on the NAM but generally unchanged thru 48hrs. Only notable difference is the precip shield is considerably more expansive. Not really too interested in what it shows post 48hrs to be honest. Not saying I wont peek tho :-)

 

Haha. The NY thread is going nuts over hour 54

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NAM is going to be a bomb...

 HR 72 sim radar

nam_namer_072_sim_radar.gif

 

Ok i will bite slightly.....NAM showing convective feedback issues in its long range likely due to its hi-res. At 60 hrs has 4 slp centers over the southeast in response to convection offshore. Thus why anything past even 36 hours on this model needs to be taken with a grain of salt/caution.

not seeing this at all on the ncep website?

nam_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Weenie here: ANY hope of seeing a 24" storm for us?

the way the GFS/GGEM and now NAM, on top of the EURO making major shifts towards those models, I would say yes there is a chance. I think we see QPF increase from here on out as the models begin to pick up on mesoscale features. I've been high on this set up since Monday and not living/dying with every model run qpf output. I still think 1 to 2 ft is a solid bet right now for SE PA through Jersey. Coastal areas will have mixing issues imo but I'm not sold it will come that far inland to 95 and if it does, I doubt it will be a long changeover.

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