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January 22-23 Storm Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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I am telling you, how many times in our many years of tracking storms in this area have Miller As done this only to trend north as we get closer to the event?  It has happened numerous times.  And with the warm waters off the coast and what I see as not a screaming suppression signal I have to believe this will come north yet again.

 

If I am wrong, so be it....

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I am telling you, how many times in our many years of tracking storms in this area have Miller As done this only to trend north as we get closer to the event?  It has happened numerous times.  And with the warm waters off the coast and what I see as not a screaming suppression signal I have to believe this will come north yet again.

 

If I am wrong, so be it....

It's certainly possible .... The oft worshipped 1996 storm was just like that for the Lehigh Valley.   I can remember 24 hours before the event I was extremely aggravated by the forecasts for 1 to 2 inches and a miss to the south.     It seems for the big ones, we always have to flirt with danger (i.e. either a complete miss or a change to rain/sleet).

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Can we bring back the weenie tags and give Wiggum 2?

Im fine with your opinion, but why? Because I am showing some concern? Its not like I'm making stuff up and pulling misinformation out of thin air. I've provided facts, maps, etc. Anyone who is going to sit there and say the threat is as good or better than 48 hours ago is lying to themselves and other members of this forum. Yes, there is some data still suggesting a big hit, I'm not saying there isn't, but there has been a clear shift away from the unanimous overwhelming agreement we had 48 hours ago for a Nesis 4 or even 5 event. 

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I am telling you, how many times in our many years of tracking storms in this area have Miller As done this only to trend north as we get closer to the event?  It has happened numerous times.  And with the warm waters off the coast and what I see as not a screaming suppression signal I have to believe this will come north yet again.

 

If I am wrong, so be it....

 

This is what I have observed as well, but when I stated this earlier it was quickly dismissed.  It will jog back north a bit, sometimes a LOT, then corrects itself to a happy medium. 

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Im fine with your opinion, but why? Because I am showing some concern? Its not like I'm making stuff up and pulling misinformation out of thin air. I've provided facts, maps, etc. Anyone who is going to sit there and say the threat is as good or better than 48 hours ago is lying to themselves and other members of this forum. Yes, there is some data still suggesting a big hit, I'm not saying there isn't, but there has been a clear shift away from the unanimous overwhelming agreement we had 48 hours ago for a Nesis 4 or even 5 event. 

we kid because we love...you're good, dude

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how's that 2 feet on the gfs working out for you?  a long way to go here, let's try not canceling anything this far out, especially given the amazing signal for a storm.

Tough call til tomorrow at least. On one hand you have the mighty Euro ticking South and wanting no parts of what the GFS is dishing out, on the other hand you have the GFS which has ultimately been more consistent still showing a big hit. Really tough call at this stage still. All options clearly still on the table tho. 

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