Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 22-23 Storm Threat


Ralph Wiggum

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Feeling disappointed, but that's b/c I'm a weenie newb.

 

We go through this to-and-fro malarkey EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.

 

A bad meteorologist lives and dies by each model run, a good meteorologist forecasts through using models as guidance. That's the difference.

Thus why I have been urging caution all week and saying temper expectation until 12Z Wednesday. Been thru this too many times before. If its any saving grace, we still have 3+ days to rectify this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man I'm depressed. Whole day is ruined bc of the 12z Euro. Quite the life I live

We still get 3-6"/4-8" on the Euro. Sign me up!

I mean, we just had a ridiculously warm December. If someone told me a month ago that we would have a shot at a 3-6"/4-8" event in January, I would have been all over it.

We need to just take what we can get while keeping expectations low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAVGEM is a complete miss save for some rain showers or flurries.

Well, at least the threat tanked completely all in one run rather than stringing us along until Friday night.

If no reversal changes by 12z Wednesday, Im sticking a fork in this one.

 

Or, there's something else going on at play here.

 

How can people throw out all the consistency of the last 2 days, due to ONE model run. It's much smarter to wait and see if the trend continues, or if it reverses itself. Right now, we hang in the balance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAVGEM is a complete miss save for some rain showers or flurries.

Well, at least the threat tanked completely all in one run rather than stringing us along until Friday night.

If no reversal changes by 12z Wednesday, Im sticking a fork in this one.

 

You are throwing in the towel because of the NAVGEM?  I have never seen anybody else on this forum reference that model except you.  It is worthless.  Yes the EPS moved south but are still north of the Op.  The Euro is still on its own really as far as reliable modeling goes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You are throwing in the towel because of the NAVGEM? I have never seen anybody else on this forum reference that model except you. It is worthless. Yes the EPS moved south but are still north of the Op. The Euro is still on its own really as far as reliable modeling goes.

Youre right, its the navgem. Not because "the most accurate model in the world" is essentially out to sea.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So sorry for the novice question, but can someone explain why the Euro took such a dip to the south? Was that set into action when the storm first came onshore or did it happen somewhere in the southeast?  

 

Who knows.  Model physics.  Maybe a met can answer.  I know the last event a few days ago the euro did the same thing and then eventually came around closer to the other models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EPS not looking good from what I am hearing.

"You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run"

 

You need to relax.  3+ days out and you freak over a shift?  I see no reason why a later shift north on the models will not occur in the coming runs over tonight and through tomorrow.  We've seen this happen numerous times during Miller A events.  Warm coastal waters and climo along with entrance of current system in NW US all point to a massive supressed run as not likely.  It will come back IMO.  R.E.L.A.X.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...