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January 22-23 Storm Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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I don't care about the jackpot, I care about the gradient. Too close for comfort and it doesn't help the Poconos out much either. Indeed it will keep moving. 

 

Gradients have killed me in my location since about 2009. For once I'd like to not have to worry about it.

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Seems most models are now in the 10-20" range with some 2' lolli's sprinkled in over SE PA. This seems reasonable attm and much more realistic than the 3' totals some models were spitting out. I would take that range any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Of course this could fluctuate depending on how guidance handles the energy once it comes onshore later tonight and tomorrow morning, so Im still not ready to go all-in until 12Z Wednesday, but if someone held a shotgun to my head and asked for my best guess at totals, specifically central Bucks County area, 10-20" would be my answer right at this particular time.

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Seems most models are now in the 10-20" range with some 2' lolli's sprinkled in over SE PA. This seems reasonable attm and much more realistic than the 3' totals some models were spitting out. I would take that range any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Of course this could fluctuate depending on how guidance handles the energy once it comes onshore later tonight and tomorrow morning, so Im still not ready to go all-in until 12Z Wednesday, but if someone held a shotgun to my head and asked for my best guess at totals, specifically central Bucks County area, 10-20" would be my answer right at this particular time.

Yup a good 12-18 storm for just about everyone, slap in the winds and you have a 30" storm equivalent, in theory 30-40" is cool , but deadly and damaging isn't, nor do I want to have the national guard around.

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So the #1 analog on CIPS is now the Blizz of 96'.  So granted the lows root origin is much different than 96 once it enters the Miss valley going forward is where the comparison starts which was my basis from yesterday stating it wasn't similar.  However, I will agree that at 500 mb once it reaches the TN valley it does resemble it a good bit with lots of WAA out ahead of the low pressure center.  I am eating crow on that one gents as well as my thinking from a few days ago that this would be more wet than white for our area and I am thrilled to do so!  I am ready for a potentially historic storm!  

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Perfect example of a poor resolution model struggling with a potent 500mb system:

0cdb932611cd81f6b1b9c3b0911703d5.jpg

Closes the upper low off early and way south near Mississippi which torches everyone including areas well inland. Highly doubt this solution verifies with little to no support.

If this solution actually verified with zero snow, I would give up this hobby altogether :-)

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Perfect example of a poor resolution model struggling with a potent 500mb system:

0cdb932611cd81f6b1b9c3b0911703d5.jpg

Closes the upper low off early and way south near Mississippi which torches everyone including areas well inland. Highly doubt this solution verifies with little to no support.

If this solution actually verified with zero snow, I would give up this hobby altogether :-)

Yeah if you look at panel form hr 84 to 90 that's where it falls apart.  Don't think the surface low goes from the middle of Alabama to the southern coast of GA like that.  

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Yeah if you look at panel form hr 84 to 90 that's where it falls apart. Don't think the surface low goes from the middle of Alabama to the southern coast of GA like that.

It probably wont. But even with warming, this model is suffering from some sort of feedback errors. You dont have a bombing slp like that with a clearly defined ccb falling as plain rain in late January. I mean, I guess under perfect fail conditions it is possibility, but very highly unlikely.
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