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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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The Euro op and EPS keeps coming in south of the GFS and Canadian ops and their ensembles' tracks

Verbatim the Euro is more than good enough for your area, but with that evolution there might be a cutoff to the north, doesn't look as string as some of our other storms though as there's no strong HP or particularly strong confluence to the north. But it's still far out so let's see where it goes the next couple of days.
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What scares me is that the 12z ECM was mellowed out by hints of convective feedback at hours 141-150.

This could have actually been even stronger than what was shown.

d305c5298233fabbcbc0d96eae6e8cfd.png

Scared how? That the storm might trend weaker over the next few runs or that the storm could blow up even further?

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Scared how? That the storm might trend weaker over the next few runs or that the storm could blow up even further?

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Scary exciting. It could have been even stronger this past run without the possible modeling error. Good for those who love crippling snow storms.

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In that regard, it will be interesting to see what the new Parallel run does with this. The 12z run of the operational EC looks nearly identical to the 00z Parallel run. 

 

Scary exciting. It could have been even stronger this past run without the possible modeling error. Good for those who love crippling snow storms.

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Yeah, the 12z EC ensemble is beautiful.  It basically completely agrees with the operational run in terms of track but obviously as a mean this far out, it has much lower snowfall amounts in the 6-9 inch range area-wide and amounts over 1 foot in Western Virginia, Eastern West Virginia and the Boston area.

 

The Control Run has roughly 20 inches in some locations around NJ and NYC and around 30 inches in Northwestern Virginia, west of D.C. and in West Virginia.  It basically agrees with the operational run of the model however, just slightly north with the entire track, but almost identical. 

 

The main reason the ensemble mean is only showing 6-9 inches in our area is that it only hits our area with roughly half the members.  Many of the other members are missing us to the south. So, if the operational run is correct with the track, then more of the individual ensemble members will come in line and snowfall amounts will gradually increase as they do so. Unless of course those half are correct and it does miss us. 

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That's really impressive. When it comes to major systems, the Euro does very well even at days 5-7.

Not convinced that it'll play out this way until consistency prevails for a few days but I thought it was unlikely we'd leave this pattern quietly with teleconnections lining up and an AO near -5 prior to the event.

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