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WinterWxLuvr

January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3

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Troff goes negative too early,  there's no 50/50 low, however some of us get saved by the kicker in this scenario.

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This run is lolworthy.... 162 back to snow

Notice that the -10 850 line is all the way north of the Canadian border. The Pacific is really gonna f#$% us over big time!

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Notice that the -10 850 line is all the way north of the Canadian border. The Pacific is really gonna f#$% us over big time!

 

So?  162 is snow in DC... better than nothing

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Obviously, IMBY, but let's hope that's not right. East of 95 gets nothing. I think we'd all prefer a good pasting.

SV maps often conservative but maybe usually more right than others too. Wasn't there some events like that in 97-98?

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It is still showing something - as long as that continues at this point, whatever... still dumps snow in DC. Get this under 96-120 hours and then we can start freaking out about specific details. 

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I think we sometimes lose sight of the bigger picture. Just 24 hours ago it wasn't even close. Rainer for everyone. All the subsequent op runs had something different going on in sensible wx. We have a long way to go. This will probably toss back and forth, especially if you're following LR ops from run to run. I think some of us are examining these op runs a bit too deeply. The signal is there for something.

 

Where have I heard that before...  

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SV maps often conservative but maybe usually more right than others too. Wasn't there some events like that in 97-98?

Not even that far back. 2013. Such as it is when you live east of 95.

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I'm starting to think peedee3 thinks it isn't going to snow based on a LR gfs op run.

 

Bob, don't you know? It was 53 at DCA today. That tells us everything we need to know about weather ~155 hours from now. 

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SV maps often conservative but maybe usually more right than others too. Wasn't there some events like that in 97-98?

Montgomery County, MD was under a WSWatch for one of them (the Late Jan one I think). Obviously it didn't verify.

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Not happening this run fellows...

LOL....then it must not have happened at 12z either because when I compared the gfs surface from the last two runs at the same time frame I thought they were freakishly similar.

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Fair enough pd3. But the gfs was bad because the ull and slp track were too far north. The temp issues stem from warm air advecting in from low circulation and not a retreating air mass.

We walk the line at 850 and the surface with like 80% of our storms. The airmass is actually better than most we deal with. Just need to keep things under us. It's pretty simple in this case

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Fair enough pd3. But the gfs was bad because the ull and slp track were too far north. The temp issues stem from warm air advecting in from low circulation and not a retreating air mass.

We walk the line at 850 and the surface with like 80% of our storms. The airmass is actually better than most we deal with. Just need to keep things under us. It's pretty simple in this case

If the air mass was better the warm air advection would cause frontogenesis... Boom

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