MJO812 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah...OTS. Every model went OTS tonight including the GGEM Ensembles and GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hmm...interesting change with the 0z GFS, although it still doesn't give a whole lot. Hopefully other models continue in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I would say the 00z EURO @ 135 hours looks much improved compared to ALL previous runs...IDK if it is going to pan out to be anything, but it has the right 500mb 'look' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not exactly sure why, but we just have kind of lost that sprawling 1032mb HP that was modeled to be in a good spot the last few days. Why I am awake for the 00z EURO run during this pattern? The world may never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Okay, so the EURO @ 150 hrs doesn't look that bad! Could be a hit for parts of the SE region. There is a 1028 HP building into the Lakes on the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 @ 168 HRS we have a neutral tilted ULL N of the FL panhandle. It missed phasing with the northern branch. There is still a HP sditting over the Lakes. Some very ligth snow for parts of VA looks like. Idk how N it will come though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Deepening low off the Capes, but the trough is neutrally tilted and cut off from the flow. Not going to come North. It was close enough this run to keep an eye on it though. Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Deepening low off the Capes, but the trough is neutrally tilted and cut off from the flow. Not going to come North. It was close enough this run to keep an eye on it though. Nightthat's the best euro run I've seen from storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 You guys see 6z. I would take that in heartbeat. Slow moving slow developing ball of fun. Hours of precip. Me likey...me want wingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 You guys see 6z. I would take that in heartbeat. Slow moving slow developing ball of fun. Hours of precip. Me likey...me want wingy I thought you were joking. You're not. It even has something for us tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Holy zwyts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The 500mb pattern as modeled on the 6z shows the NAO phase change to + right as the modeled storm moves through on the 22-23rd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Holy zwyts The great white hope is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 There is one thing that gives me faith that maybe the 6z GFS caught on to something. The storm that we get is caused by a much stronger PAC NW shortwave coming into the US around 96 hours....compare that to 102 hours on the 00z GFS. Maybe the morning data picked up on something, who knows. If it gets too strong though I'd get worried about that ULL that cuts itself off from the flow (look @ some of the individual 6z ensembles) That was one goofy looking run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The euro ensembles are all over the place but have some really snowy members and the ens mean snowfall is almost 3 inches.. Still not a great look to the mean pattern for the late week storm better than the operational. That the models are still jumping around from run to run suggests things are hardly settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 06z GFS is showing what it showed a couple days ago. Definitely an option but as others have stated, all the models don't have a handle and they are all jumping around. But it was a great run - and supports somewhat, what the GFS Para had been showing at times yesterday (esp. with temps). Last nights 0z GFS para had a storm but slips to our south and OTS but it is close. We are down to 160 hours tho... and some of the ingredients to make this happen are within 120 hours (5 days) so hopefully the models decide on something over the weekend. Hopefully it is a positive, snowy solution for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 FWIW, yesterday's 12z EURO parallel has a nice hit for the end of next week. Bullseye is south of DC with a stripe of 6-12 inches going all the way to Richmond. DC gets around 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 6z GEFS members are similarly all over the place as the EPS, with some pretty snowy solutions in there. Mean snowfall is about 2" for that period on the GEFS (a few shutouts, a few big hits). I posted the 6z individual members total snowfall through next weekend (pretty much all on the individual plots falls due to this storm). Lots to resolve over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 FWIW, yesterday's 12z EURO parallel has a nice hit for the end of next week. Bullseye is south of DC with a stripe of 6-12 inches going all the way to Richmond. DC gets around 4 inches. For some reason it hasn't updated on Stormvista. That is awesome news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I thought you were joking. You're not. It even has something for us tomorrow! I never joke about model runs. Serious s*** and you guys would come at me with virtual pitchforks and torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 what is the GFS parallel site again... I will bookmark it this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 what is the GFS parallel site again... I will bookmark it this time This takes you directly to the GFS. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 FWIW, yesterday's 12z EURO parallel has a nice hit for the end of next week. Bullseye is south of DC with a stripe of 6-12 inches going all the way to Richmond. DC gets around 4 inches.It's an interesting take. We get most of our precip in the DC area when the slp is way down over new orleans. Return flow from weak hp off the SE coast pushes a tongue of precip right through the TN valley into the cold air from the hp to the north. Basically an overrunning event and not synoptic. Weak low forms off the nc coast and strengthens. That's where the heavier stripe to our SE comes from. The synoptic stuff just scrapes us mostly but SE of here does quite well.ETA: taking a closer look at the parallel shows a long duration event because of the way it evolves. 18-24 hours. It's like a mini pd2. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This takes you directly to the GFS. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area Thanks and bookmarked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 FWIW, yesterday's 12z EURO parallel has a nice hit for the end of next week. Bullseye is south of DC with a stripe of 6-12 inches going all the way to Richmond. DC gets around 4 inches. I'll take it and run. 4" up the M/D line, 6" DC, 6-12" south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The 00z Par EURO doesn't come out until this afternoon right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I didn't see anyone post this last night, but the 00z UKIE @ 144 hours looks REALLY good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ^ There is a pesky shortwave around the Lakes that might block the HP from building in where we need it, but the 500mb pattern looks pretty decent. This is the first overnight runs that have been all around positive in a long time. If we can get the 12z GFS to show something similar & maybe get lucky enough for the 12z EURO to show a hit, I will start to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ^ There is a pesky shortwave around the Lakes that might block the HP from building in where we need it, but the 500mb pattern looks pretty decent. This is the first overnight runs that have been all around positive in a long time. If we can get the 12z GFS to show something similar & maybe get lucky enough for the 12z EURO to show a hit, I will start to get excited. Lol Do you mean that all the REALLY's, WOW's, and LOOKING GOOD @ 162!'s, aren't you being excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lol Do you mean that all the REALLY's, WOW's, and LOOKING GOOD @ 162!'s, aren't you being excited? Haha I am a wx enthusiast what can I say. However, with basically every threat we've seen come and go this year once it got within 144 hours it kind of went poof except maybe a stray GFS run here and there. There is a small shot that we actually see this one come together today in that time frame so I'd def be legit excited if it does. Wouldn't mean it is over or a lock regardless of the outcome, but compared to the rest of the threats this year it will be hard not to get excited if we do get a good 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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