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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussion


Solak

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31 minutes ago, beanskip said:

This thing is going to have to work hard to get east of Tallahassee. If it doesn't .... TIM BERRRRRRRRR.

Just hope it continues to accelerate and the duration of worse winds are limited to a few hrs.....looks like a nighttime hit so that sucks...hopefully it isnt to bad and the power outages are short lived....try to get some video though.

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

18z NAM really dumps on central and eastern NC. This is out to 48 hours, still some precip falling in N.NC.

 

9-1-2016 4-28-22 PM.jpg

Why dont ya do the honor and start of Obs/realtime thread for Hermine since the threat is legit could be a epic rainfall event if the models are correct....and that way we wont clutter up the general thread....

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6 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

4k NAM seems to develop a north spur of lower pressure off the main storm and maybe that's enhancing the rainfall. Honestly, it doesn't make a lot of sense. I wouldn't expect the western side of a TS to generate a whole lot of rain, even with frontal enhancement and upper air support.

I have a hard time buying the 4K NAM, but I don't have a problem with the possibility of enhancement on the west side, based on the factors you mentioned.

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I have a hard time buying the 4K NAM, but I don't have a problem with the possibility of enhancement on the west side, based on the factors you mentioned.

I don't buy the NAM either but is OK at SLP tracking inside 24 hours.  With that track we would be rainy/windy.  

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I have following Hermine so closely I forgot about Lester to my east. 

We are under a hurricane watch. When was the last time Oahu was under a hurricane watch? This is also the first hurricane watch I have ever been under. Everyone is about to go into panic mode like with 40mph tropical storm Darby. Lol. I think Lester might pass just to the north here.

 

Obama is also here currently. 

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, that sounds about right.  How's the GFS coming in?  Ticking east?

Quite. Probably a good 20-30 miles from 12z/18z. Looks like sharp precip cut off through northern Durham and Orange counties. It dropped totals in south Durham from 2.3" to 1.1". Strangely, wind fields look about the same. I think the storm being closer to the ocean allows it to stay a little stronger.

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1 minute ago, WidreMann said:

Quite. Probably a good 20-30 miles from 12z/18z. Looks like sharp precip cut off through northern Durham and Orange counties. It dropped totals in south Durham from 2.3" to 1.1". Strangely, wind fields look about the same. I think the storm being closer to the ocean allows it to stay a little stronger.

Maybe the 4K GFS will save us.  Or the RGEM.

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