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1/17/16 Winter Weather Threat


packfan98

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It looks fairly certain that the mountains will get a wide spread 1 to 3 inches from this.  It's Saturday night, time for a road trip!

Indeed. Complete no go here in western upstate, as always. Temps way to warm for any snow, heck its already 53 here in Easley. Needed to come through earlier in the week. Hope all you other guys get a foot!

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The UKMET is improved.  The low is a little stronger which ends up slightly further north off the East Coast as the previous run.  The westward expansion of the precip shield through northern GA and the Carolinas is much improved.  That seems to be the trend of the day.  Now let's see if the low strengthens like the models are predicting = nowcast time!

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The UKMET is improved. The low is a little stronger which ends up slightly further north off the East Coast as the previous run. The westward expansion of the precip shield through northern GA and the Carolinas is much improved. That seems to be the trend of the day. Now let's see if the low strengthens like the models are predicting = nowcast time!

We got a euro run to watch first which I think might be fun

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12z GEFS continues the trend: ~3mb lower pressure at all hours and much more precip on the NW side!

Yeah, noticeably wetter, too, not that it's a huge surprise given the op's move. I'm starting to think there could be a stripe of 1-3" somewhere in the Piedmont, foothills, and/or mountains of NC and maybe SC, N GA, and S VA.

I'm not too worried about the BL here. Give us the precip and I think we'll be fine.

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Yeah, noticeably wetter, too, not that it's a huge surprise given the op's move. I'm starting to think there could be a stripe of 1-3" somewhere in the Piedmont, foothills, and/or mountains of NC and maybe SC, N GA, and S VA.

I'm not too worried about the BL here. Give us the precip and I think we'll be fine.

You'll be good James. CR, Jon and I are looking at dripping snow I'm afraid unless the temps trend down
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It's always good to precede these events with temps the day before busting 5-10 degrees too warm. :axe:

CR, this area is so close that you could end up the winner. NAM is colder. It's really going to come down to tracking the radar tomorrow. I also think it will be critical for how cold we can get tonight. Starting off clear should help.

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CR, this area is so close that you could end up the winner. NAM is colder. It's really going to come down to tracking the radar tomorrow. I also think it will be critical for how cold we can get tonight. Starting off clear should help.

If we could stay clear through the AM, that would certainly help. Don't know how realistic that is, though.

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Euro is a little drier than the GFS.  With QPF so little proabably trivial.

It did follow the trend we saw all morning though..that it's a little wetter and further north than it's 0z run. In the end though there isn't much difference at this point between all of them.

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You think the upstate of sc will see some snow

Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

 Depends on where you are - better chance if you are near Rock Hill or Gaffney. Western upstate could see a few flakes mxed in with the rain, but no real snow unless things change big time with temps. I'm thinking right now, surface temps won't even be close here; probably upper 30s to low forties. This'll be a non even for the upstate unless the cold air and rates can overcome near the Charlotte metro. 

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Depends on where you are - better chance if you are near Rock Hill or Gaffney. Western upstate could see a few flakes mxed in with the rain, but no real snow unless things change big time with temps. I'm thinking right now, surface temps won't even be close here; probably upper 30s to low forties. This'll be a non even for the upstate unless the cold air and rates can overcome near the Charlotte metro.

Gotcha I'm in greer

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Just a quick observation but the NAM is busting too cold especially in the Western Carolinas.

 

Temps valid for 18Z

Location   NAM   Actual

 GSP          54       58

 HKY          50       56

 AVL          43        46

 CLT          55       56

 GSO         53       55

 RDU         52       56

 

GFS too cool as well but not quite as bad. Just something to keep in mind as we go through the day.

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I still believe that the Moisture shield is going to be a lot better than models are forecasting. It'll definitely be worth watching as we go through this afternoon.

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Just a quick observation but the NAM is busting too cold especially in the Western Carolinas.

 

Temps valid for 18Z

Location   NAM   Actual

 GSP          54       58

 HKY          50       56

 AVL          43        46

 CLT          55       56

 GSO         53       55

 RDU         52       56

 

GFS too cool as well but not quite as bad. Just something to keep in mind as we go through the day.

Yes, it is ridiculously busting in my area, 39 after it was foretasted to be 34 at this time yesterday in West Jefferson.

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Just a quick observation but the NAM is busting too cold especially in the Western Carolinas.

Temps valid for 18Z

Location NAM Actual

GSP 54 58

HKY 50 56

AVL 43 46

CLT 55 56

GSO 53 55

RDU 52 56

GFS too cool as well but not quite as bad. Just something to keep in mind as we go through the day.

Thanks for digging these up.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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A Winter Weather Advisory out for portions of N GA:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

GAZ005>009-013>016-170300-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.160117T0600Z-160117T1400Z/
MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND
150 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM
TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHATSWORTH...TO JASPER...TO CLEVELAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH AND THEN CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW LATE
TONIGHT. THE LIGHT SNOW COULD BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING AROUND 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE ROADS AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES COULD BECOME
SLICK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FALLING
TO 30 TO 32 DEGREES AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED
FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$

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Just a quick observation but the NAM is busting too cold especially in the Western Carolinas.

Temps valid for 18Z

Location NAM Actual

GSP 54 58

HKY 50 56

AVL 43 46

CLT 55 56

GSO 53 55

RDU 52 56

GFS too cool as well but not quite as bad. Just something to keep in mind as we go through the day.

That's a deal breaker right there! When best case scenario was 37 or 38, we can't afford a 5 degree bust high today! Game over!
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