Morch Madness Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Which is why the second one favors areas further southeast Like here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It won't be that far southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 A great disco from BOX on potentials FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ... DOUBLE-BARREL LOW / MILLER-B TYPE SIGNATURE? NEVERTHELESS STORMSYSTEM APPROACHING TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING RAPIDLY DEEPENING ACROSSTHE 40N/70W BENCH-MARK POTENTIALLY DOWN TO 980-970 MB ... QUICKLYEXITING LATE. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PREFERRED AS THERE IS GOODCLUSTERING WITH DETERMINISITIC / ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ... MINUS THECANADIAN /WOMP WOMP/.COMPLICATIONS: LACK OF ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS CANADA CONSIDERING N-WINDS WITH ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE ... QUICK DAYTIME PASSAGE ... SOMEUNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE STORM UNDERGOING MATURATION CLOSES-OFFCOMPLETELY DURING IMPACT /POTENTIAL TROWALING/ ... THERMAL PROFILESAND SUBSEQUENT RAIN / SNOW TRANSITION LINES ... ALONG WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS /POTENTIALLY ISOTHERMAL UP TO H7 NEAR-FREEZING ...PERHAPS A MORE WET-SNOW ... HEAVY PACKING WITH ACCUMULATION/.OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A RAIN/SNOW SETUP WHERE THICKNESSES AND THERMALPROFILES ARE KEY. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE AS NOTED ALONGWITH CIPS ANALOGS ... LOOKING AT A SW-NE TRANSITION LINE WITHCOASTAL-FRONT INFLUENCES PER ONSHORE FLOW. ACCUMULATING SNOWS AWAYFROM THE SHORE AND COASTAL PLAINS ... ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR WITHFOCUS ALONG THE E-SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN. COULD SEE A LOT OFMOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INEXCESS OF AN INCH. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY WE WILL BE CONTENDINGWITH WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. THIS IN ADDITION WITH A ROBUSTDEEPENING SYSTEM ... COULD BE DEALING WITH WIND HEADLINES AS WELLALONG THE COAST / COASTAL PLAINS.AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT LATE ... RAIN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOWTURNING LIGHT. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO EVERYTHINGWINDING DOWN ALONG WITH WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 CIPS analogs, interestingly 1-27-11 is number 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That isn't even close to thermals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Come on primary...die you stubborn bastard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That isn't even close to thermals though. Yea number 3 2008 1-15 looks best, of course the other map is a mean of all the analogs but you knew that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The GFS looks great...as long as you're not PF. 850's are south of Boston as a 973 MB low passes south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The GFS looks great...as long as you're not PF For Brooklyn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 For Brooklyn?Nah, for this area, I'm not a IMBY snob, I like seeing it snow oretty much anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wow great run for sne compared to previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Congratss interior sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The GFS looks great...as long as you're not PF. 850's are south of Boston as a 973 MB low passes south of the area. Need to wash out these 925's with rates, being the GFS is not great with thermals, doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Need to wash out these 925's with rates, being the GFS is not great with thermals, doable Was just about the say the same thing. I don't take the GFS thermal output as gospel. Often busts warm. Still, can't complain about that low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS looks pretty nice for the 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 LOl man Bellichek might have another Meteorologist rant in him, would love to see rain forecasts and a 6-10 blue bomb instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The GFS looks great...as long as you're not PF. 850's are south of Boston as a 973 MB low passes south of the area. lol toaster bath is expected at this point. The rule in NNE is keep expectations as low as possible these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What is the mechanism that sort of shunts the storm off ENE? Is it sensing that pseudo 50/50 up north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS looks pretty nice for the 18th Meh thats a norlun, watch that wash out, way offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What is the mechanism that sort of shunts the storm off ENE? Is it sensing that pseudo 50/50 up north? That block up north. That prevents it from Going to ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Need to wash out these 925's with rates, being the GFS is not great with thermals, doable True but the Euro is pretty "warm" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 True but the Euro is pretty "warm" too. Pretty typical early season 95 corridor, all changeover backside though. I mean't it when i said it we are a month behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That's a Pine Punisher, Maple Mauler, Birch Bender, Condo Collapser, Oak obliterator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That is a beautiful mid level look. What a crusher if it were snow, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pretty typical early season 95 corridor, all changeover backside though. I mean't it when i said it we are a month behind I know you do. I just don't see this a a pure "snow" event for the coastal plain. I'm still on the fence on areas along and N of the I-90 corridor and possibly even further N being all snow as well. We really need the primary to come in substantially weaker to minimize the warmth ahead of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS looks pretty nice for the 18th The Euro pretty much had squat though. Albeit the ensembles came around somewhat this run down near the Gulf so maybe something comes of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 lol toaster bath is expected at this point. The rule in NNE is keep expectations as low as possible these days.One day, we too will get to experience this phenomenon known as a snowstorm. Until then, we wait patiently with our dustings and flurries and advisory events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pretty typical early season 95 corridor, all changeover backside though. I mean't it when i said it we are a month behind 8" here that run.....hope it isn't the over trender yet......I'll bet this trend levels soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I fear OTS more than precip types, but probably b/c I'll likely be up north for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 At the strength the GFS has this thing, it should be a blockbuster...low 970's is no joke. But we can't seem to get all the ingredients together to maximize this things strength...dam shame!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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