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Pats/Chiefs Miller B-elichick


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You seemed like you were backing off yesterday. But good call overall.

I was backing off the juggernaut idea, which is still possible.

I also said that I expect to see a more consolidated coastal, though I hated seeing some of those solutions.

 

You can't express any dismay regarding a particular modeled outcome without some calling it a forecast.

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Good title.

 

I'm pretty sure it will snow somewhere in SNE... but where and how much are anybody's guess.  I like the idea of it being a Miller B from what little I have seen of guidance so far... a pretty run of the mill one I would anticipate, which would be salve for many wounded.

 

Still a number of days to get the players out of the locker room and onto the field though.

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I was backing off the juggernaut idea, which is still possible.

I also said that I expect to see a more consolidated coastal, though I hated seeing some of those solutions.

 

You can't express any dismay regarding a particular modeled outcome without some calling it a forecast.

well 974 is juggernaut, too bad its progressive but man that has potential

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well 974 is juggernaut, too bad its progressive but man that has potential

What I mean by juggernaut as in a general 1-2'.

I should have clarified....but yes, very strong low, progressive as it may be.

Don't sleep on heavy potential, though....this goes nuts, it won't take long to get smoked.

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You can't express any dismay regarding a particular modeled outcome without some calling it a forecast.

It is hard to tell what is a "forecast" and what is just conversation given how often a lot of us post...which posts mean what, etc. Expressing dismay at a turn of events seems like leaving a prior standpoint of positive outcome.

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It is hard to tell what is a "forecast" and what is just conversation given how often a lot of us post...which posts mean what, etc.

Well, it was a  "model thread"....but pretty good bet that had I altered my outlook on the system, I would have updated my blog to reflect that.

Go read my last post linked below in my sig.

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What I mean by juggernaut as in a general 1-2'.

I should have clarified....but yes, very strong low, progressive as it may be.

Don't sleep on heavy potential, though....this goes nuts, it won't take long to get smoked.

i see a closed 534 under us, very encouraging, crashing heights blue bomber

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One of the trends has been to weaken the PV lobe interaction with the PJ and instead focus more on the STJ/PJ phase...this helps concentrate the conveyors on the developing coastal low and shuts off the WAA to the west sooner...this is a good trend as I had mentioned yesterday that phasing with the PV lobe was a bad result for us as it would promote a stronger primary further to the north.

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One of the trends has been to weaken the PV lobe interaction with the PJ and instead focus more on the STJ/PJ phase...this helps concentrate the conveyors on the developing coastal low and shuts off the WAA to the west sooner...this is a good trend as I had mentioned yesterday that phasing with the PV lobe was a bad result for us as it would promote a stronger primary further to the north.

 

I also noticed some energy in the SW US that seems to help kick it east a bit quicker and doesn't allow it to turn the corner like 12z yesterday did. It's the new s/w that spawns a low near the Gulf. I mean look at the timing differences from yesterday to today. Pretty substantial.

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One of the trends has been to weaken the PV lobe interaction with the PJ and instead focus more on the STJ/PJ phase...this helps concentrate the conveyors on the developing coastal low and shuts off the WAA to the west sooner...this is a good trend as I had mentioned yesterday that phasing with the PV lobe was a bad result for us as it would promote a stronger primary further to the north.

 

I do see this as well.  See how this plays out in future runs as it has huge implications for marginal locales.

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