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January 15-16 Storm Threat


Hoosier

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Seeing general model agreement on a potentially significant storm affecting the region during this timeframe, though details on synoptic evolution a bit up in the air with some runs even trying to drop in a chunk of the polar vortex in for a possible phase. Getting into the 5 day window and despite some disagreement, threat looks legit enough at this point so discuss away.

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Eastern half of the sub would seem to benefit from this system. Best threat we've had so far this winter, most of the action has been to the west. Finally the trough has set up farther towards east coast. Just need to hope this doesn't end up being an east coast storm. Bit of a weak high over Cuba to keep an eye on.

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no matter where this ends up and how significant it is or isn't, chances are we won't know until 48 hours out.  Even this current storm had surprises up it's sleeve within 24 hours.

 

at any rate the ensemble low placement looks further south, kind of with that same dual low set up/transfer  models were showing days ago for this period.    (from wxbell)

post-622-0-52379500-1452457449_thumb.jpg

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Eastern half of the sub would seem to benefit from this system. Best threat we've had so far this winter, most of the action has been to the west. Finally the trough has set up farther towards east coast. Just need to hope this doesn't end up being an east coast storm. Bit of a weak high over Cuba to keep an eye on.

 

Gonna come down to that s/w retrograding around the polar vortex. Essential for that to come down and phase with the southern stream component. It disappears/timing is off and it's suppression city.

 

Not really worried about an upper lakes cutter.

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Gonna come down to that s/w retrograding around the polar vortex. Essential for that to come down and phase with the southern stream component. It disappears/timing is off and it's suppression city.

 

Not really worried about an upper lakes cutter.

 

Would bad timing mean a clipper for the Great Lakes and a storm for East Coast?

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