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January 15-16 Storm Threat


Hoosier

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RC actually referenced this past weekend's storm in the afternoon LOT afd.

I have little confidence in the outcome considering the spread. Somewhat surprised the Euro and Parallel Euro and most of the EPS members trended so quickly away from what it showed a few days ago, but then again, the ECMWF suite didn't handle this past weekend well either. Having the main players over the RAOB network didn't help us with the weekend storm, but I'm hoping that the gap gets closed some tomorrow. Looks like at least partial sampling of the main Pac wave for tomorrow's 12z run. A way in which this becomes more significant for northern IL can be envisioned, and NAM is closer to that, though as it stands now odds are higher for minor accums at best. Hopefully it trends back the other way in the next few days.
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Practically seems like a glorified frontal passage now. I propose next time we wait until within 84 hours to start a thread, because in hindsight the last two look like they are not threadworthy.

 

At least with the last system, it looked like big snow numbers were going to happen within 36 hours. We were all thrown for a last minute loop.

Bad timing between the low and when the Arctic high comes down. 

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With 500mb heights around 535ish dm it seems pretty low heights for rain...what gives? Is there really that much low level WAA? It's not even that strong of a low and the low to the southeast seems like it would hog the warm moist air.

 

It's a stubborn marginal boundary layer that's the problem. Winds are out of the SW.

 

Sounding for Lansing at 72 hours.

Now if the snow cover extended a ways to the SW, then you could probably get by with frozen precip.

 

gfs_2016011300_072_42.75--84.5.png

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With 500mb heights around 535ish dm it seems pretty low heights for rain...what gives? Is there really that much low level WAA? It's not even that strong of a low and the low to the southeast seems like it would hog the warm moist air.

Only this winter...

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Practically seems like a glorified frontal passage now. I propose next time we wait until within 84 hours to start a thread, because in hindsight the last two look like they are not threadworthy.

We've had the unofficial 5 day rule for years...we were in the 5 day timeframe when the thread was created and had multi-model support for a moderate if not big event with differences on location. Every so often it's not going to work out. Still a chance this one has a trick up its sleeve but probably on a small scale if it happens.

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The best scenario I think would be if this system were to trend back south and have just enough cold air to the north to hang on for some snow accumulation. The 12z and 18z NAM was at least trying to make things look interesting for some of us.

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We've had the unofficial 5 day rule for years...we were in the 5 day timeframe when the thread was created and had multi-model support for a moderate if not big event with differences on location. Every so often it's not going to work out. Still a chance this one has a trick up its sleeve but probably on a small scale if it happens.

I like your optimism but this one is toast, the nonsense in the subtropical isn't allowing this thing to dig and instead of phasing with it we get a glorified frontal passage.
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Well, 12z Euro was pretty big the other day.

 

 

Seriously.. With the way the models have been behaving i think it would be very wise not to start a thread till the threat is atleast inside 120hrs and or day 5.. These models have had a hard enough time with 48hr threats.. :lol:

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I like your optimism but this one is toast, the nonsense in the subtropical isn't allowing this thing to dig and instead of phasing with it we get a glorified frontal passage.

That's been there as a potential issue all along unfortunately. Doing a dprog/dt, definitely been a trend toward less amplification of the northern stream.

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So we go from 3 degrees to rain in 60 hours, then another cold blast, and then what appears to be another rain storm day 8-10.  

 

brutal

 

Buckeye with the quote of the winter.

 

This one looked like a dud to me from the start, but it had its moments occasionally. Enjoyed the discussion.

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