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January 15-16 Storm Threat


Hoosier

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With blocking that strong it would be hard to cut especially with the block being in eastern Canada. As buckeye noted the Para Euro has it tracking along the river, I'd buy that much more than cutting.

 

Well, my post was partially tongue in cheek.  Will have to see what Canada looks like and how much room there is to cut as we get closer.  I'd probably lean against a true cutter that cuts through the lakes and into Canada but we are a good 5 days out so things can be altered with this setup.

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Well, my post was partially tongue in cheek. Will have to see what Canada looks like and how much room there is to cut as we get closer. I'd probably lean against a true cutter that cuts through the lakes and into Canada but we are a good 5 days out so things can be altered with this setup.

True, and my commentary is purely looking at the models right now, if it changes 5 days from now then anything is possible. I would still say it would be hard to shunt out a cold airmass at the surface like what we are expecting over the next few days.
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Hard to believe it will push out this deep of an arctic airmass with fresh snow cover, that setup screams prolonged ice storm.

Agree that the fresh snow pack and this week's artic air mass should keep this from cutting straight north. The 18z gfs is smoking Crack imho. I don't think there will be a semi accurate modeling of this storm until at least Tuesday at the earliest.

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Gonna come down to that s/w retrograding around the polar vortex. Essential for that to come down and phase with the southern stream component. It disappears/timing is off and it's suppression city.

 

Not really worried about an upper lakes cutter.

 

 

18z GFS is an illustration in how to come north.

 

I haven't looked at this storm at all, as I was watching the garbage for yesterday. First thing I looked at for this storm was the 18Z GFS....all I could do was :facepalm: when I see it has rain for most of lower Michigan. It's only one model run, right?  :whistle:

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I haven't looked at this storm at all, as I was watching the garbage for yesterday. First thing I looked at for this storm was the 18Z GFS....all I could do was :facepalm: when I see it has rain for most of lower Michigan. It's only one model run, right?  :whistle:

 

After the muddied and disjointed way it handled today's storm in the same time-frame, I'm not too concerned about any particular solution the GFS is spitting out. Just need to focus on trends.

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it'd be nice if we saw a bowling ball scenario been awhile since we've seen one.

 

That's what I would love to see. I think if anything the storm will trend south a bit and this area might actually be on the northern fringe of it.

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00z GFS is going to be north and not good for most.

 

It was north at this time range with the last storm so I guess we can hope for that again.

I'd really be shocked if it dislodged this air mass that fast. Crazier things have happened but to go from -15 to near 0 at 850mb from hour 72 to 96 with just 25kts of advection at 850, just seems a bit unrealistic.

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s/w quickly goes negative tilt on the GFS as it emerges into the Plains.  You would need a better block to force it south in that scenario IF that's what happens.

 

Less nrn stream influence too with just the srn wave comign out, then you have some kicker wave flying in over the four corners at 114hrs that helps kick it out even more and carves out the trof

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