Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 12th-13th Cartopper Thread


Deck Pic

Recommended Posts

    If you look at a recent HRRR simulation of composite reflectivity, it has echoes passing through right around now but no precip reaching the ground.  Perhaps that is good news with respect to its handle on the event, as I sure do like its band of 35 dbz that passes between DCA and BWI between 6 and 7PM.

 

  << edit:   35 is in the composite, but it's still 25 dbz at 1 km    >>

 

with that said, returns on radar at work too, and nothing is falling. was just out picking up lunch. so, i'll assume nothing is falling at home too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 332
  • Created
  • Last Reply

36 at home with some returns on radar. can't make out on the 83/York Road traffic camera is anything is falling. Really need to get a webcam for the backyard.

Exactly what I was looking at earlier, it is dry with dews in the Upper teens, Outside of the Beltway it is in the Upper 30s for the most part, lower 40s for the metro's. Wet Bulb us 33.5 at BWI.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

    If you look at a recent HRRR simulation of composite reflectivity, it has echoes passing through right around now but no precip reaching the ground.  Perhaps that is good news with respect to its handle on the event, as I sure do like its band of 35 dbz that passes between DCA and BWI between 6 and 7PM.

 

  << edit:   35 is in the composite, but it's still 25 dbz at 1 km    >>

 

hopefully the returns passing through will help the column out, definitely dry IMBY (as NinjaWarrior pointed out), 36 but a DP of 19

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Low dew points, time of day, cold antecedent surface conditions and elevation will help the lucky ones.  Those west of MD 97 to MD 27 stand a chance for a solid coating, west of I-81 probably picks up widespread 1" - 2".  Confident this could surprise the northern 1/3 of the Baltimore Beltway this evening.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

153 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ052>056-501-502-505-

506-130100-

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-

SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-

NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-

NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-

SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-

EASTERN LOUDOUN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...

BALLENGER CREEK...ELDERSBURG...WESTMINSTER...REISTERSTOWN...

COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...BOWIE...SUITLAND-SILVER HILL...

CLINTON...COLLEGE PARK...GREENBELT...LAUREL...CAMP SPRINGS...

GLEN BURNIE...ANNAPOLIS...SEVERN...SOUTH GATE...SEVERNA PARK...

ARNOLD...ODENTON...ST. CHARLES...WALDORF...GERMANTOWN...

DAMASCUS...BETHESDA...ROCKVILLE...GAITHERSBURG...SILVER SPRING...

LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...

DALE CITY...MANASSAS...WOODBRIDGE...LAKE RIDGE...MONTCLAIR...

RESTON...HERNDON...ANNANDALE...CENTREVILLE...CHANTILLY...MCLEAN...

FRANCONIA...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA...FALMOUTH...FREDERICKSBURG...

WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...STERLING

153 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

...SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT RUSH HOUR

THIS EVENING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING DURING RUSH

HOUR. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND

STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE

METRO AREA BY 4 PM AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY 8 PM.

THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND COULD DROP A QUICK

COATING OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS. WHILE ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AT

PRESENT...GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY

RESULT IN PATCHES OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS THIS EVENING. THE

GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO REACH 50 MPH WHICH COULD CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR

DAMAGE.

EVENING COMMUTERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION AND TAKE THEIR TIME.

VISIBILITY COULD DROP RAPIDLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING HEAVIER

SNOW SHOWERS...AND ROADS WHICH APPEAR WET LATER THIS EVENING

COULD IN FACT BE ICY.

Best thing I've read all winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS Said

 

 


Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
153 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-
EASTERN LOUDOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...
BALLENGER CREEK...ELDERSBURG...WESTMINSTER...REISTERSTOWN...
COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...BOWIE...SUITLAND-SILVER HILL...
CLINTON...COLLEGE PARK...GREENBELT...LAUREL...CAMP SPRINGS...
GLEN BURNIE...ANNAPOLIS...SEVERN...SOUTH GATE...SEVERNA PARK...
ARNOLD...ODENTON...ST. CHARLES...WALDORF...GERMANTOWN...
DAMASCUS...BETHESDA...ROCKVILLE...GAITHERSBURG...SILVER SPRING...
LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...
DALE CITY...MANASSAS...WOODBRIDGE...LAKE RIDGE...MONTCLAIR...
RESTON...HERNDON...ANNANDALE...CENTREVILLE...CHANTILLY...MCLEAN...
FRANCONIA...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA...FALMOUTH...FREDERICKSBURG...
WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...STERLING
153 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

...SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT RUSH HOUR
THIS EVENING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING DURING RUSH
HOUR. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
METRO AREA BY 4 PM AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY 8 PM.

THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND COULD DROP A QUICK
COATING OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS. WHILE ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AT
PRESENT...GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY
RESULT IN PATCHES OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS THIS EVENING. THE
GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO REACH 50 MPH WHICH COULD CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR
DAMAGE.

EVENING COMMUTERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION AND TAKE THEIR TIME.
VISIBILITY COULD DROP RAPIDLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ROADS WHICH APPEAR WET LATER THIS EVENING
COULD IN FACT BE ICY.

$

RCM
Link to comment
Share on other sites

     It's not really the temps, as the HRRR still shows the idea of initial rain showers causing evaporative cooling, causing a change to snow.    The problem is that this HRRR cycle backed off a lot on QPF here in the local area, with only very scattered snow showers behind the rain showers.    Could be the model picking up on a change to how this will evolve or just a hiccup.   Either way, no one was expecting more than 0.5" of snow locally even in the best-case scenario.

 

   

Latest HRRR, too warm unless your out by 81.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

     It's not really the temps, as the HRRR still shows the idea of initial rain showers causing evaporative cooling, causing a change to snow.    The problem is that this HRRR cycle backed off a lot on QPF here in the local area, with only very scattered snow showers behind the rain showers.    Could be the model picking up on a change to how this will evolve or just a hiccup.   Either way, no one was expecting more than 0.5" of snow locally even in the best-case scenario.

or the Euro signal for days. lol, kidding

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...