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January 12th-13th Cartopper Thread


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Wxwatcher, look at the slp as well. In this case we need the vort much further south to end up on the north side of the low which is always the preferred. Virtually no chance at that happening.

We'll get some waa precip as the low passes north. But that also means dicey temps as Ian already pointed I out.

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Don't like seeing an impressive sfc low going well north of us like that.   The low-level winds here usually end up southwesterly which causes some downsloping.   Looking at the NAM at 84, you can see strong SW flow even up at 700 mb which can assist with dry slot formation.    With a strong vort in the right place and an intense arctic front, you can still certainly create a band of healthy snow showers (that can accumulate.  hell, look at what the band in North Dakota did Wednesday night), but some things will be working against us.

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Don't like seeing an impressive sfc low going well north of us like that.   The low-level winds here usually end up southwesterly which causes some downsloping.   Looking at the NAM at 84, you can see strong SW flow even up at 700 mb which can assist with dry slot formation.    With a strong vort in the right place and an intense arctic front, you can still certainly create a band of healthy snow showers (that can accumulate.  hell, look at what the band in North Dakota did Wednesday night), but some things will be working against us.

Yep.   Normally it's a dusting or even a miss because of the downsloping.  Still occasionally will get a dusting and some lucky fellow to our north gets and inch.  I'd just like to see more snow than last weeks meager flurries.

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   NAM says we're 60 early Sunday afternoon falling to 40 by evening and then dropping more during the night.   The problem is that the low-level flow here goes strong westerly late in the day which should dry us out good.    It will only be cold enough for flakes well after dark, and the NAM says that precip isn't anywhere near here by then.

 

   I think we have a better shot at thunder Saturday night than we do of snowflakes on Sunday

 

No chance of a few flakes on Sunday? There's going to be some massive lake effect from warm lakes Michigan, Huron and Erie, maybe something jumps the mountains and gives you a quick trace. (is there a slow trace?)

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Thanks guys for the analysis.

Was my read on the overall setup correct?

All vort passes are not created equal. The best type of clipper is when the vort digs below us and surface reflection pops somewhere in central or southern va out in front of the vort. This compensates for orographics wringing things out to the west and down sloping. We're in the best dynamics being north of slp.

This one has the low spinning well above the base of the vort and instead of out in front it's behind the leading edge. Because the low is so far north we really don't have much to work with except a line of snow showers being triggered by the moisture in the southerly warm advection that's getting sucked into the low pressure to the north. The lift is being provided by the Arctic front.

Looks more impressive at h5 than reality at the surface.

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We had a massive squall last February and this is a moisture laden situation as the front passes. It looks able to drop temps 15* in 2 hours and that can be a 20-30 minute snow blaster

Last year's squall came with dropping temps, howling wind and briefly blinding snow for some. And snow that developed out ahead of the main squall. Is this even close to the same??
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