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Two Clipper System's Jan 11-14th Disco/OBS


dmc76

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That's not a reasonable call. Between the LES bands and the clipper u really think 1" is s reasonable call? Lol. Will get at least 2". Maybe 3.

 

One's already starting off wrong if they're holding out for help from LES bands to get 2-3" of snow (for a number of reasons). :lol:

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Based on all available data, forecasting just 1 inch of snow for SE MI mon nite and Tuesday is clearly lowballing

 

Even the bullish models only show 0.10" of QPF.

 

Going with climo snow ratios, that would only translate to 1" to 1.5" of snow.

 

Granted, that's not factoring in a possible feast or famine outcome (I.E. areas under heavier stationary banding that may develop end up with more snow while other areas end up with less snow), but it would be unreasonable at this point to try and pinpoint the aforementioned details. 

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Even the bullish models only show 0.10" of QPF.

 

Going with climo snow ratios, that would only translate to 1" to 1.5" of snow.

 

Granted, that's not factoring in a possible feast or famine outcome (I.E. areas under heavier stationary banding that may develop end up with more snow while other areas end up with less snow), but it would be unreasonable at this point to try and pinpoint the aforementioned details. 

NAM and GFS both show 0.15-0.20" qpf.

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ILN had an interesting AFD.

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
409 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUATION
OF A COLD WEATHER PATTERN AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES...THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION.

ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHUNTS OFF TO THE
EAST. SKIES WILL GENERALLY START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. HIGHS
WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTH.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. A LEAD
S/WV AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED FIRST BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. THIS WILL START SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER S/WV IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CAUSE A SYNOPTIC
SCALE RESPONSE...WHICH WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS A BAND OF SNOW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE ARRIVING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SNOW TOTALS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND AROUND AN INCH SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...AND WITH INCREASING GUSTY WINDS...IT WILL POSE A
TRAVEL HAZARD. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...STRONG CAA...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LINGERING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE NWS BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ROBUST...CAPABLE OF
DROPPING VISIBILITIES QUICKLY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ALONG WITH A
QUICK MINOR ACCUMULATION.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE EARLY...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO A FEW
FLURRIES DURING THE EVENING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. THE COLDEST LOWS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE...THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND 10 BELOW NORTH AND FROM 5 BELOW TO ZERO SOUTH.

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The NAM is hinting at major Lake enhancement:

 

 

namconus_asnow_us_29.png

 

NAM actually gives me almost six inches, as well as down into Ohio as a major lake effect band reaches inland during the clipper and holds for about six hours, of course since it's hinting at LES you gotta always know the snowfall totals will HEAVILY vary.

 

GFS is basically the NAM sans LES enhancement, which appears likely

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06Z GFS is having issues with lake effect, and weirdly has the lake effect band setup inland in Branch and Hillsdale counties.  the NAM actually looks more realistic in this case, with more spread-the-wealth LES from the levels of instability. 

 

Also, once again DTX is conservative as always. Only thinks one to two even in the snow belt.

 

PERIOD AS A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE IN AND OF
ITSELF IF CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD...RE-ENFORCES THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AFTER
BRING A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR
TWO...TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST

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06Z GFS is having issues with lake effect, and weirdly has the lake effect band setup inland in Branch and Hillsdale counties. the NAM actually looks more realistic in this case, with more spread-the-wealth LES from the levels of instability.

Also, once again DTX is conservative as always. Only thinks one to two even in the snow belt.

PERIOD AS A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM...RATHER IMPRESSIVE IN AND OF

ITSELF IF CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD...RE-ENFORCES THE UPPER

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AFTER

BRING A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR

TWO...TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE

TEENS AND 20S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST

How is that being conservative? The majority of guidance falls in lock step with that forecast. Personally I do not want the WFOs in the business of wish casting.

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This clipper looks like LES fuel.

Mqt already mentioned the need for possible winter storm warnings late Monday night/Tuesday.

..EXPECT A VERY STRONG BURST OF SNOW FOR A 3-6HR PERIOD ALONG AND

RIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN MODERATE NORTH-

NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE

HEAVY SNOW...EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH

ALONG THE TROUGH...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THE COMBINATION

OF THE WIND AND SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR TRAVEL AND VISIBILITIES

FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY

NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THIS IDEA

OVER THE LAST 24-36HRS...WILL BEEF UP THE WORDING IN THE HWO AS SOME

AREAS MAY END UP NEEDING WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COMBINED

IMPACTS OF THE SNOW/WIND.

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