2016 Severe Weather Thread

[Solak]

From GSP's HWO

..WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONTWILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONDITIONS AHEAD OFTHE FRONT BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN LEADING TOPOSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES. 

[Brick Tamland]

I think we're going to makeup for the lack of winter storms with severe storms. Actually makes sense. We have had plenty of energy and storms around since the start of winter. It just wasn't cold enough for snow or ice most of the time. We had more thunderstorms this winter here than snow storms. Now, with things getting warmer, the storms will just have more of a chance to become severe.

[downeastnc]

Spring and summer of 1998 was a very bad year for severe weather from Dixie Alley all the way up the east coast to NE......the models have other possible severe setups next week...looks more focused out towards Dixie Alley though.

[Brick Tamland]

Another threat of severe weather next week?

[Brick Tamland]

A poster on TW said the AAM forecast was a good tool for forecasting severe weather, and the GFS has us going back to phase 8, and potentially phase 1. He said phases 8, 1, and 2 are known to have the greatest tornado risks.

[Mountain Dew]

A poster on TW said the AAM forecast was a good tool for forecasting severe weather, and the GFS has us going back to phase 8, and potentially phase 1. He said phases 8, 1, and 2 are known to have the greatest tornado risks.

 

When?

[Jon]

CIPS already picking it up

[LithiaWx]

Slight risk today in the ATL. Should be a fun afternoon.

[downeastnc]

Slight risk today in the ATL. Should be a fun afternoon.

 

Fairly large area as well.....sounds like you guys might get a squall line of sorts....

 

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0649 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST

STATES AND TN AND OH VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE LWR MS...TN..AND OH

VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FROM THE

LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO RIVER...AND BY EVENING FROM

MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS LOCALLY

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AR WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH

UPSTREAM EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID MO VALLEY.

BOTH SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH THE STRONGER UPSTREAM

SHORTWAVE EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING THE WEAKER LEAD WAVE AS IT MOVES

ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS

PLACED THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER W-CNTRL

IL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW SWWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO NW

TX AND THEN WWD INTO E-CNTRL NM. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO

PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE

LWR GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL

CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LWR MS VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST.

...PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS...TN...AND OH VALLEYS..

ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS AR AND MO WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE

REGION AS FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE MCV...THE COLD FRONT...AND

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PERSIST EWD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTM COVERAGE

WILL INCREASE AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE AS THE FORCING

FOR ASCENT INTERSECTS A MODERATELY BUOYANT AIRMASS. KINEMATIC

ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS

KY...WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW /40-50 KT AT 850 MB INCREASING TO

70-80 KT AT 500 MB/ SUPPORTING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT.

HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE AND LIMITED

INSTABILITY WILL BE THE FACTOR PRECLUDING A MORE EXTENSIVE SEVERE

THREAT. CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS AR AND MO WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE

REGION BY LATE MORNING...ACTING TO FURTHER LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN

ACROSS THE AREA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL REACH

THE MID 50S ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY BY THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN

OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS -- INCLUDING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA

AND CURRENTLY NARROW PLUME OF AT LEAST MID 50 DEWPOINTS -- THIS

MOISTURE IS LIKELY A RESULT OF PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF MOISTURE

RETURN. AS SUCH...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE

INITIAL LINE MOVES THROUGH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL

POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT

ANY HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE LOW.

...LWR MS VALLEY TO GA...

MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS

THE SOUTHEAST. TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE

EARLY EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND THE

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACT UPON THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION

LIKELY ONGOING. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...INSTABILITY WILL BE

MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /NOTED ON THE 12Z

JAN AND LIX SOUNDINGS/. AS A RESULT...A LINEAR MODE IS FAVORED WITH

DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. SOME HAIL IS ALSO

POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORM MERGERS THAT OCCUR AS STORMS

ON THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKE ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. AS THE COLD

FRONT CONTINUES EWD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY

LOWER DEWPOINTS /MID 50S/ AND LESS INSTABILITY...LEADING TO A

DECREASE IN TSTM STRENGTH AND A REDUCED SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 03/01/2016

[Solak]

Tornado Warning for Clay, Coosa, Talladega and Tallapoosa County in AL until 7:15pm CST.

[Solak]

AT 643 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STEWARTVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SYLACAUGA...GOODWATER...STEWARTVILLE...NEW SITE...GOLDVILLE...

HILLABEE CREEK...PARKDALE...OVERBROOK...CLEVELAND CROSSROADS...

MIGNON...ROSELLE...HACKNEYVILLE AND HOLLINS.

[Solak]

 

 

 

Tony Bearden ‏@tbearden01

@spann @simpsonwhnt @NWSBirmingham View of tornado from Pelham this evening by LeAnn Ratcliffe

[Brick Tamland]

Report of damage from that tornado in Alabama.

[Brick Tamland]

Wish we had more posters here from Alabama and Mississippi during severe season. Seems they always get tornadoes every year. I don't care about snow unless there is a chance it is in my backyard. But I like following severe weather wherever it is.

[downeastnc]

SPC day4/5 talk of potential for tornados in east Texas and into Dixie Alley not sure how it translate east from there into the SE...if at all....still might see a rough days Mon-Tues.....just have to jump to another forum to follow it

 

...D4/MON AND D5/TUE...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT 12Z/MON SHOULD
SHIFT TOWARDS NEB BY 12Z/TUE...WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGS
ALONG THE SRN CA COAST ACROSS BAJA CA TOWARDS SONORA. A LEE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY EJECT FROM ERN CO TO THE MID-MO VALLEY...WITH AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE MIXING INTO CNTRL KS TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX.
WHILE MOISTURE QUANTITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE OVERLY GREAT...RATHER
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD
SUPPORT A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALONG MUCH OF THE
DRYLINE BY MON EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
MON NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASE.

DESPITE A PROBABLE LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION ONGOING AT
12Z/TUE...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE GREATER MUCAPE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR ON D5 VERSUS D4 GIVEN RICHER MARITIME TROPICAL AIR SPREADING
INLAND FROM THE WRN GULF. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION...ROBUST DIABATIC HEATING COULD OCCUR ACROSS S
TX. THIS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS TUE
EVENING/NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MERIDIONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...A STRONG SLY LLJ SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS MAY
SUPPORT A LONG-DURATION TORNADO RISK...WITH HAIL/WIND THREATS BEING
MORE PREDOMINANT UPSTREAM

[mackerel_sky]

Wish we had more posters here from Alabama and Mississippi during severe season. Seems they always get tornadoes every year. I don't care about snow unless there is a chance it is in my backyard. But I like following severe weather wherever it is.

We got one of the best , stormcat , representing the AL, and holding it down!

[Solak]

Wake up, Brick!!

 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0228 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN VA AND PARTS OF NC...   ...SUMMARY...   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN   VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   ...SYNOPSIS...   A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM   THE TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A STOUT SURFACE   ANTICYCLONE SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE   EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE NORTHWEST...AN   UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH   PLAINS BY EARLY TUE.   ...NC/VA...   DESPITE THE DAMPENING NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE   TROUGH...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MON   AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASINGLY   PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED   ACROSS SRN VA AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OCCURS. WHILE MODELS ARE   INCONSISTENT ON THE DEGREE OF WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE...PREDOMINANT   SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS   APPEAR PROBABLE. CONSISTENCY IS SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER WITH THE   DEPICTION OF A PIECE OF THE SRN PLAINS EML PLUME OVERSPREADING THE   REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. SETUP SHOULD FAVOR A MODEST COMBINATION OF   BUOYANCY/SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A PRIMARY RISK OF ISOLATED   SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

[mackerel_sky]

Tomorrow looks like there could be a good bit of severe, for most of the NC posters ! Heads up Brick

[Solak]

NWS RAH knows where Brick lives....

 

@NWSRaleigh 5m5 minutes ago Wake Forest, NC

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Raleigh NC, Wake Forest NC, Cary NC until 10:30 PM EDT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Solak]

Slight risk has gotten much larger for today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brick Tamland]

Had a couple of good storms roll through last night. Looks like we could have more today.

[Brick Tamland]

WxSouth

3 mins ·

A strong upper disturbance with cold air aloft will rotate across Tennessee and Kentucky this afternoon reaching the western and central Carolinas into central Virginia around dark. Along its path it may drop some hailers in some of the stronger cells. The system will work with good timing for eastern TN, KY, west NC through WV and western VA at peak heating for some strong storms, some will have hail and high winds. Keep an eye to the skies anywhere near its track from northeast Alabama,northern GA and points northeast as the day wears on.

[Solak]

2 areas in the HWO...

HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-1015 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITHLARGE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDGUSTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 6 PM.ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSSTHE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BYSMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-1015 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW MAYPRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER... AS WELL AS DAMAGINGWIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 1 PMAND 6 PM.ANOTHER BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THEAREA LATER THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAILAND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.

[downeastnc]

Batch of clouds over north central NC limiting cape at the moment, if it can get out of here by noonish then that area should see enough cape, eastern and south central NC already to a 1000-1500 cape and a area of 6-8 mlapse rates are moving up from the SW this will be the driver for the primarily large hail threat in central and eastern NC, out west could get some wind to go with......no where has more than 2% risk for tornados but they can always happen especially here in the east since there is a bit of a sea breeze possible this afternoon. Current scape values 

 

[Amos83]

Got full sun here now, hoping to get at a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon at some point.... after this craptastic winter I hate to admit it but I'm lovin' the warm weather 

[Solak]

RAH morning briefing...

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf

[downeastnc]

Parameters are starting to come inline now so it wont be long, still looks like big hail the main threat....bullseye for severe might be Charlotte to RDU where there is more wind and hail threat....everywhere else looks mostly big hail..

[Solak]

11:40am CDT #SPC_MD 0211 severe potential...watch possible, http://go.usa.gov/cGPF4 

[Solak]

Mesoscale Discussion 213

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0121 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NC INTO

NORTHERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141821Z - 141945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT LOCALLY STRONG WINDS

MAY OCCUR AS WELL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH

ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF

INCREASINGLY AGITATED CUMULUS OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION OF NC INTO

NORTHERN SC. HERE...DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S

F...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 F. AS A

RESULT...WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED WITH MUCAPE

VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATED SOME

SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF RALEIGH. THIS DEVELOPMENT

IS LIKELY DUE PARTLY TO DIURNAL PROCESSES COMBINED WITH A WEAK LEE

TROUGH ALIGNED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME

DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING AS OF 18Z...BUT AS FORCING FOR

ASCENT SPREADS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THE NEXT FEW

HOURS...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. ANY

ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OUT OF THIS CUMULUS FIELD WILL

MAINLY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN

PLACE AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT DISCRETE CELLS. WHILE

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR

REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

BY EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE HIGHER

TERRAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A HAIL THREAT INTO

THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING TOWARD THE

COAST. COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND

TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

[downeastnc]

So that cell near Angiers is rotating, kinda surprising given the setup....might even get a tornado warning looks better this last scan.

 

Edit: looks pretty broad again.....would love to see a pic of the structure with this cell....