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WinterWxLuvr

January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

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Except those indices don't imply were done after next weekend. The nao stays negative and may be reloading towards the end. The pna remains positive and the epo is dropping day 10-15. What about that says its all or nothing day 7?

I find it highly improbable for having a snowstorm with a neutral nao in a pattern like this. Sure it can reload in Feb.

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I find it highly improbable for having a snowstorm with a neutral nao in a pattern like this. Sure it can reload in Feb.

I disagree. Big storms can come on the flip from neg to neutral or even positive. I don't have the graphs in front of me but there are plenty of examples. Sometimes the relaxing block is what keeps a storm from going straight out to sea or suppressed.

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In my mind, if we can get a good storm next weekend it sets the stage for a colder pattern to reload easier with the snow-cover, which would be absolutely perfect for us. At the same time, if we lose a storm when all the indices are primed directly prior to any sort of rise in the nao, don't you think it would become more difficult to reload what we want? I'm not trying to jump to conclusions just yet. I just think next weekend's results will be a big key to the pattern down the road.

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CMC Has definitely changed this run Colder and a hybrid type system. coastal is there and MUCH stronger then 00z. headed into the right direction here

post-12800-0-00220100-1452444421_thumb.g

post-12800-0-35785100-1452444424_thumb.g

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Frame before. Not much needed here. Definitely improved and under 140 hours now on the ggem. GFS is about 20 hours slower with everything.

post-12800-0-58178200-1452444831_thumb.g

post-12800-0-00354200-1452444834_thumb.g

post-12800-0-70246000-1452444955_thumb.g

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CMC Has definitely changed this run Colder and a hybrid type system. coastal is there and MUCH stronger then 00z. headed into the right direction here

I kind of see the same general problem with both the gfs and ggem that they drop that peice of the pv down into the lakes and this pump the heights ahead of it here. That allows the northern stream to amplify and run a system to our north. Once that happens the stj is irrelevant its game over for us. Bob posted how that issue seems less likely in the day 10-15 period but right now it's really mucking up the day 6-8 period. Plenty of time to change but that idea has shown up several runs now and hadn't reversed yet.

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I kind of see the same general problem with both the gfs and ggem that they drop that peice of the pv down into the lakes and this pump the heights ahead of it here. That allows the northern stream to amplify and run a system to our north. Once that happens the stj is irrelevant its game over for us. Bob posted how that issue seems less likely in the day 10-15 period but right now it's really mucking up the day 6-8 period. Plenty of time to change but that idea has shown up several runs now and hadn't reversed yet.

Agreed its not good right now But wont take much to change it .HUGE timing differences between 2 models tho

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Frame before. Not much needed here. Definitely improved and under 140 hours now on the ggem. GFS is about 20 hours slower with everything.

just looking at slp it's close but look at h5. If the storm does amp more why would the coastal be the one to do it? Look how far back the trough is? That has cutter all over it.

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just looking at slp it's close but look at h5. If the storm does amp more why would the coastal be the one to do it? Look how far back the trough is? That has cutter all over it.

Just need the northern stream to not lag like it is right now and get some interaction further east. the northern stream has been progressive all year i don't see why it wont be faster in this situation also. right now there is not much interaction between the incoming storm and coastal due to the location. but if the northern stream can kick faster and get some cold air in here in time for the coastal then they can interact hopefully and transfer all to the coastal. 

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GFS likes 1/21 big time!

After the weekend tho. #failboat ;)

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I find it highly improbable for having a snowstorm with a neutral nao in a pattern like this. Sure it can reload in Feb.

Several of our KU storms occur when the negative NAO is transitioning to neutral or even positive. Even a neutral NAO can act as a mechanism to slow storms along the east coast. So it does offer a better probably of having a snowstorm based on the previous teleconnections plot you posted.

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GFS likes 1/21 big time!

Wouldn't take too much to pull that NW. It's a beaut! But that is so far down the line It's just weather porn.

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Just need the northern stream to not lag like it is right now and get some interaction further east. the northern stream has been progressive all year i don't see why it wont be faster in this situation also. right now there is not much interaction between the incoming storm and coastal due to the location. but if the northern stream can kick faster and get some cold air in here in time for the coastal then they can interact hopefully and transfer all to the coastal.

what you see as minor I see as a major change. Go back a couple days to when we started seeing next weekend as a threat. Look at the h5 differences now. Instead of a 50/50 it's an elongated pv that digs into the upper Midwest raising heights in the east. The whole trough axis is shifted. That's not minor. If that h5 configuration is true then we have little chance. Anything that develops will cut well west. We're not talking about needing some small shift in slp or cad to hold a little more, that's a major thing. It's far enough out that it can change and it's not game over but I'm not going to cherry coat it either, things are going the wrong way. I think some are seperate and so will cling to this threat even if it's not looking great.

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Based on all 3 ensembles the jan 20-22 looks like the one with the most potential if I had to get on one to produce.

lol it went from Jan 12 to jan 15-16 to jan 18-19 and now jan 20-22

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I disagree. Big storms can come on the flip from neg to neutral or even positive. I don't have the graphs in front of me but there are plenty of examples. Sometimes the relaxing block is what keeps a storm from going straight out to sea or suppressed.

I may be overthinking things, but I enjoy doing it! Instead of viewing it as pulling a needle out of a haystack, to me it's more like gathering as many data points as possible to try to decrease deviations.

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Still a work in progress as I'm going down the list to at least 8" snowstorms so I can start grouping them by features when they happened. A blocking pattern like the one ahead is notorious for big storms but it's not the sole way to get them by far. In other ENSO phases the looks are actually often different. That aside....

 

12z GFS near init

 

q4HpWbX.gif

 

 

Composite of Greenland/Hudson big block storms that dropped 10"+ at DC, from 10 days out:

 

fM1UPVf.gif

 

Not the same pattern we have necessarily though there are important similarities. One thing worth really noting is the blocking sig is pretty pronounced at 10 days out.

 

Interestingly, when you roll this around there is a signature of a precursor event prior to the main event. A number of them have it. Not all. You can sort of see it in the 3D to 2D out panel and it seems to influence the 50/50. Anom in TX scoots east and becomes part of bigger anom east. Rolling forward again shows a new anom in S Plains/MS Valley region next day.

 

aolCT4n.gif

 

 

 

Plenty of these patterns don't produce giants but I think there's elevated, perhaps better than 50/50, risk of a significant to major EC storm in this window. I'd favor the wave the GFS blew up today as well, that seems to be the main signal for now and it makes sense watching the progression.

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What would this forum look like if all of NC was under 1-2 feet of snow as the GFS depicts

The Panic room would explode. I like our chances for that storm hitting the 95 corridor than NC but we'll see.

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I suppose there is a reason mid Atlantic region does not have a great number of snow storms in this time frame historically. My guess is it's a wavelength thing. Big ticket snows with phasing often happen during ninos and we know the lag effect from strong ones. No surprise blizzard of 96 was a Nina I believe.

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What would this forum look like if all of NC was under 1-2 feet of snow as the GFS depicts

I think we all would be happy another group of weather enthusiasts had some much needed snow. And we would applaud their good fortune. Then we would go to our liquor cabinets and..............

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Still a work in progress as I'm going down the list to at least 8" snowstorms so I can start grouping them by features when they happened. A blocking pattern like the one ahead is notorious for big storms but it's not the sole way to get them by far. In other ENSO phases the looks are actually often different. That aside....

 

12z GFS near init

 

q4HpWbX.gif

 

 

Composite of Greenland/Hudson big block storms that dropped 10"+ at DC, from 10 days out:

 

fM1UPVf.gif

 

Not the same pattern we have necessarily though there are important similarities. One thing worth really noting is the blocking sig is pretty pronounced at 10 days out.

 

Interestingly, when you roll this around there is a signature of a precursor event prior to the main event. A number of them have it. Not all. You can sort of see it in the 3D to 2D out panel and it seems to influence the 50/50. Anom in TX scoots east and becomes part of bigger anom east. Rolling forward again shows a new anom in S Plains/MS Valley region next day.

 

aolCT4n.gif

 

 

 

Plenty of these patterns don't produce giants but I think there's elevated, perhaps better than 50/50, risk of a significant to major EC storm in this window. I'd favor the wave the GFS blew up today as well, that seems to be the main signal for now and it makes sense watching the progression.

So now you're agreeing with me?

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