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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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Just need the northern stream to not lag like it is right now and get some interaction further east. the northern stream has been progressive all year i don't see why it wont be faster in this situation also. right now there is not much interaction between the incoming storm and coastal due to the location. but if the northern stream can kick faster and get some cold air in here in time for the coastal then they can interact hopefully and transfer all to the coastal.

what you see as minor I see as a major change. Go back a couple days to when we started seeing next weekend as a threat. Look at the h5 differences now. Instead of a 50/50 it's an elongated pv that digs into the upper Midwest raising heights in the east. The whole trough axis is shifted. That's not minor. If that h5 configuration is true then we have little chance. Anything that develops will cut well west. We're not talking about needing some small shift in slp or cad to hold a little more, that's a major thing. It's far enough out that it can change and it's not game over but I'm not going to cherry coat it either, things are going the wrong way. I think some are seperate and so will cling to this threat even if it's not looking great.
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I disagree. Big storms can come on the flip from neg to neutral or even positive. I don't have the graphs in front of me but there are plenty of examples. Sometimes the relaxing block is what keeps a storm from going straight out to sea or suppressed.

I may be overthinking things, but I enjoy doing it! Instead of viewing it as pulling a needle out of a haystack, to me it's more like gathering as many data points as possible to try to decrease deviations.

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Still a work in progress as I'm going down the list to at least 8" snowstorms so I can start grouping them by features when they happened. A blocking pattern like the one ahead is notorious for big storms but it's not the sole way to get them by far. In other ENSO phases the looks are actually often different. That aside....

 

12z GFS near init

 

q4HpWbX.gif

 

 

Composite of Greenland/Hudson big block storms that dropped 10"+ at DC, from 10 days out:

 

fM1UPVf.gif

 

Not the same pattern we have necessarily though there are important similarities. One thing worth really noting is the blocking sig is pretty pronounced at 10 days out.

 

Interestingly, when you roll this around there is a signature of a precursor event prior to the main event. A number of them have it. Not all. You can sort of see it in the 3D to 2D out panel and it seems to influence the 50/50. Anom in TX scoots east and becomes part of bigger anom east. Rolling forward again shows a new anom in S Plains/MS Valley region next day.

 

aolCT4n.gif

 

 

 

Plenty of these patterns don't produce giants but I think there's elevated, perhaps better than 50/50, risk of a significant to major EC storm in this window. I'd favor the wave the GFS blew up today as well, that seems to be the main signal for now and it makes sense watching the progression.

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I suppose there is a reason mid Atlantic region does not have a great number of snow storms in this time frame historically. My guess is it's a wavelength thing. Big ticket snows with phasing often happen during ninos and we know the lag effect from strong ones. No surprise blizzard of 96 was a Nina I believe.

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What would this forum look like if all of NC was under 1-2 feet of snow as the GFS depicts

I think we all would be happy another group of weather enthusiasts had some much needed snow. And we would applaud their good fortune. Then we would go to our liquor cabinets and..............

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Still a work in progress as I'm going down the list to at least 8" snowstorms so I can start grouping them by features when they happened. A blocking pattern like the one ahead is notorious for big storms but it's not the sole way to get them by far. In other ENSO phases the looks are actually often different. That aside....

 

12z GFS near init

 

q4HpWbX.gif

 

 

Composite of Greenland/Hudson big block storms that dropped 10"+ at DC, from 10 days out:

 

fM1UPVf.gif

 

Not the same pattern we have necessarily though there are important similarities. One thing worth really noting is the blocking sig is pretty pronounced at 10 days out.

 

Interestingly, when you roll this around there is a signature of a precursor event prior to the main event. A number of them have it. Not all. You can sort of see it in the 3D to 2D out panel and it seems to influence the 50/50. Anom in TX scoots east and becomes part of bigger anom east. Rolling forward again shows a new anom in S Plains/MS Valley region next day.

 

aolCT4n.gif

 

 

 

Plenty of these patterns don't produce giants but I think there's elevated, perhaps better than 50/50, risk of a significant to major EC storm in this window. I'd favor the wave the GFS blew up today as well, that seems to be the main signal for now and it makes sense watching the progression.

So now you're agreeing with me?

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So now you're agreeing with me?

I thought you said weekend or no go. This is the storm after that. I've not really wavered much on this just haven't commented much as I don't really see the pt in dissecting every run in so much frantic detail.

 

Should also clarify the storms above held some fashion of the big block the day of the storm. There are a number of others that had the block there a week or two out and then it disappeared into the storm.

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I thought you said weekend or no go. This is the storm after that. I've not really wavered much on this just haven't commented much as I don't really see the pt in dissecting every run in so much frantic detail.

We really need the like button, cause this is a great post. This thread becomes unreadable at times, there is no point is getting worked up over every 6 hour model run

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I thought you said weekend or no go. This is the storm after that. I've not really wavered much on this just haven't commented much as I don't really see the pt in dissecting every run in so much frantic detail.

 

Should also clarify the storms above held some fashion of the big block the day of the storm. There are a number of others that had the block there a week or two out and then it disappeared into the storm.

I don't think that's a yes or no solution. I just feel the timing of blocking with our lowest indices being modeled will be a bigger factor than others.

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We really need the like button, cause this is a great post. This thread becomes unreadable at times, there is no point is getting worked up over every 6 hour model run

Well it's ubderstandable. I look at some point in general.. At least at the most recent runs if not live. But there's been a lot of absolutes thrown around the past few days by various people. Pretty much everything is on the table tho for a while it seems we tighten up into a pretty solid look for someone in the mid atl or southeast in particular.
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Well it's ubderstandable. I look at some point in general.. At least at the most recent runs if not live. But there's been a lot of absolutes thrown around the past few days by various people. Pretty much everything is on the table tho for a while it seems we tighten up into a pretty solid look for someone in the mid atl or southeast in particular.

Excellent point! I was thinking that exact same thing including some of my own thoughts. That needed to be addressed, so thanks for that.

 

eta: Awesome invention! "ubderstandable" :P

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Excellent point! I was thinking that exact same thing including some of my own thoughts. That needed to be addressed, so thanks for that.

Like I said it's understandable.. this is a wx forum. People should post what they want if the group is cool with it. As folks like psu have pointed out tho we're still largely in pattern watching time. Any of these smaller details are subject to change and many can wreck things.

 

The progression of the block across the ensembles is very encouraging IMO. I'd be a little surprised from where we stand now if there's not a major event somewhere in the d ~8-14 range. I'm still not as sold as some that the blocking will hold long term -- think there is a growing signal it won't actually (but the models have done awful up there). I feel better about seeing it again given this episode either way. 

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Excellent point! I was thinking that exact same thing including some of my own thoughts. That needed to be addressed, so thanks for that.

I've ignored more people in the last 3 days, than in all my previous time here. I lurk here and post mostly in obs thread, the upcoming period looks pretty good for our area in terms of wintry weather chances. Will it produce, who knows, let's sit back analyze and enjoy and not jump to conclusions every 6 hours.

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I may be overthinking things, but I enjoy doing it! Instead of viewing it as pulling a needle out of a haystack, to me it's more like gathering as many data points as possible to try to decrease deviations.

 

It's easy to over think. But our region requires luck almost every single time. By luck I mean important timing and placement of features that can't be picked up on until fairly close in. Like inside of hr120. Sure there are obvious flags that pop up outside of that time but run over run op analysis shouldn't begin until we're closer in than many of us have patience for (me included). But I've gotten much more patient over the years and don't get hung up to  much run over run. 

 

The d7-8 thing has an obvious potential problem but it's not set in stone yet. My wag is the best case is a mixed, light, or messy event. But important details have several days to go before making any definitive statements. 

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The plot you have posted is for 500 hPa temperature anomaly correlation.  Here is the figure for NH 500 Z AC:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ensm/allmodel/daily/dieoff/cordieoff_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

This doesn't change your overall point, however...

 

The Canadian ensemble system is actually pretty well designed.  It is a full-fledged single core (unlike the SREF) multi-model/physics ensemble that uses and EnKF for initial uncertainty.  The NAEFS is a great tool and should be used much more than it currently is.

 

You're right, I put up the wrong chart.  Sorry about that.  Thanks for the reply - very interesting as usual.

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It's easy to over think. But our region requires luck almost every single time. By luck I mean important timing and placement of features that can't be picked up on until fairly close in. Like inside of hr120. Sure there are obvious flags that pop up outside of that time but run over run op analysis shouldn't begin until we're closer in than many of us have patience for (me included). But I've gotten much more patient over the years and don't get hung up to  much run over run. 

 

The d7-8 thing has an obvious potential problem but it's not set in stone yet. My wag is the best case is a mixed, light, or messy event. But important details have several days to go before making any definitive statements. 

We all know that will never happen.

Second bold thought needs to be emphasized. That I agree.

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