Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

That is correct Mattie I had this preconceived thought that a -nao is what you need for snow ...it is just one factor this set up proves it.

Gotcha.

Unfortunately, the Mid-Atlantic isn't an area where just having one or two pieces of the puzzle will dramatically increase odds of snow. As others have said many times before, we can fail even with the best of setups.

Now...having robust blocking definitely gives a level of comfort and can help us significantly, but it can never be viewed as a guarantee.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Except those indices don't imply were done after next weekend. The nao stays negative and may be reloading towards the end. The pna remains positive and the epo is dropping day 10-15. What about that says its all or nothing day 7?

Well said.

I think we're going to be tracking for quite a while - even if it's tracking things in the medium to longer range for the next couple weeks. And it wouldn't be terribly surprising if we have a pop-up threat or two to help us along.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Except those indices don't imply were done after next weekend. The nao stays negative and may be reloading towards the end. The pna remains positive and the epo is dropping day 10-15. What about that says its all or nothing day 7?

I find it highly improbable for having a snowstorm with a neutral nao in a pattern like this. Sure it can reload in Feb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I find it highly improbable for having a snowstorm with a neutral nao in a pattern like this. Sure it can reload in Feb.

I disagree. Big storms can come on the flip from neg to neutral or even positive. I don't have the graphs in front of me but there are plenty of examples. Sometimes the relaxing block is what keeps a storm from going straight out to sea or suppressed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In my mind, if we can get a good storm next weekend it sets the stage for a colder pattern to reload easier with the snow-cover, which would be absolutely perfect for us. At the same time, if we lose a storm when all the indices are primed directly prior to any sort of rise in the nao, don't you think it would become more difficult to reload what we want? I'm not trying to jump to conclusions just yet. I just think next weekend's results will be a big key to the pattern down the road.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CMC Has definitely changed this run Colder and a hybrid type system. coastal is there and MUCH stronger then 00z. headed into the right direction here

I kind of see the same general problem with both the gfs and ggem that they drop that peice of the pv down into the lakes and this pump the heights ahead of it here. That allows the northern stream to amplify and run a system to our north. Once that happens the stj is irrelevant its game over for us. Bob posted how that issue seems less likely in the day 10-15 period but right now it's really mucking up the day 6-8 period. Plenty of time to change but that idea has shown up several runs now and hadn't reversed yet.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I kind of see the same general problem with both the gfs and ggem that they drop that peice of the pv down into the lakes and this pump the heights ahead of it here. That allows the northern stream to amplify and run a system to our north. Once that happens the stj is irrelevant its game over for us. Bob posted how that issue seems less likely in the day 10-15 period but right now it's really mucking up the day 6-8 period. Plenty of time to change but that idea has shown up several runs now and hadn't reversed yet.

Agreed its not good right now But wont take much to change it .HUGE timing differences between 2 models tho

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Frame before. Not much needed here. Definitely improved and under 140 hours now on the ggem. GFS is about 20 hours slower with everything.

just looking at slp it's close but look at h5. If the storm does amp more why would the coastal be the one to do it? Look how far back the trough is? That has cutter all over it.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

just looking at slp it's close but look at h5. If the storm does amp more why would the coastal be the one to do it? Look how far back the trough is? That has cutter all over it.

Just need the northern stream to not lag like it is right now and get some interaction further east. the northern stream has been progressive all year i don't see why it wont be faster in this situation also. right now there is not much interaction between the incoming storm and coastal due to the location. but if the northern stream can kick faster and get some cold air in here in time for the coastal then they can interact hopefully and transfer all to the coastal. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I find it highly improbable for having a snowstorm with a neutral nao in a pattern like this. Sure it can reload in Feb.

Several of our KU storms occur when the negative NAO is transitioning to neutral or even positive. Even a neutral NAO can act as a mechanism to slow storms along the east coast. So it does offer a better probably of having a snowstorm based on the previous teleconnections plot you posted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...